No one who follows me would call me a China apologist or friend of the CCP. This entire thing could have been contained to a few neighborhoods in Wuhan had Xi not screwed this up. But...

My prediction: we’re going to find most global cases were US/UK/EU imports.

Why do I say that? Look at this timeline of TW, SG, and HK travel restrictions. Out here, we were just a few days ahead of lockdowns across China that stopped the exports. HK vs Taiwan shows even a few days counted in the early days!

Across the world, though, EU/UK/US travel restrictions came much later than for China. By the time your Italy restriction went up, there were probably tens of thousands of undetected French and Spanish cases. Given the hospitalization time lags, alarms bells hadn’t gone off

I’ve added this red line to show when most of China went on lockdown. Beijing suspended inter-city coaches on Jan 25th. Most Chinese cities were on lockdown within the next 2-3 days.

Chinese COVID19 exports essentially stopped at this point. https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249002516961845248?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1249002516961845248

A friend who works at a lab that sequenced this little f___cker in late December thinks we need to wait a little longer for more genomic samples to be submitted to @GISAID before we can make much sense of this data. Anyways, preliminary data: https://twitter.com/70sbachchan/status/1249006672712011777?s=21

Iran could very well be the intermediary vector to Europe
https://twitter.com/dude313123123/status/1249045279799640064?s=21 https://twitter.com/dude313123123/status/1249045279799640064