Thank you. I've been on this earth long enough that I've seen the "this changes everything!" drama play out at least half a dozen times. And a little digging in the archives will show that this drama was very old when I was born. 1/x https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1248693522007502850

The simple and unpalatable truth is people are terrible at making grand-scale predictions, particularly in moments of extreme uncertainty. Of course it is in such moments that we most desire these predictions. But the universe is indifferent to our desire. Live with it. 2/x

I won't rehash the abundant evidence. (See Future Babble.) I'll just recall a single illustration which almost everybody seems to have forgotten. It happened in 2008. Is it the financial crisis, you ask? No. Before then. 3/x

In the first half of 2008, oil prices were soaring and "peak oil" was all the rage. Other commodity prices soared. Even food. There were actually food riots. Put it all together and you got "peak everything!" and "the Age of Austerity." 4/x

People were scared and a huge amount of time and attention went into "what does this all mean? What will the future bring?!" The one thing common to all that buzz about the world 5, 10, or 20 years in the future: Nothing Will Ever Be The Same Again. 5/x

Why has that period been so forgotten? Because a mere *few months later* the financial system crashed and the next year was consumed by economic fear. (Prompting its own "This Changes Everything" noise.) By the time that passed, we'd completely forgotten Peak Everything. 6/x

There are so many other examples. The simple truth is we all want to know what's coming because it feels like This Changes Everything. But we simply don't know. And can't know. And rather than getting worked up by speculation, it's healthier to be humble and accept reality.