Read on Twitter
2 appalling aspects of discourse:
1. Deaths statistic is being treated as factual even when we know it& #39;s a WILD undercount. This is deeply irresponsible. EVERY sentence referencing the stats MUST include the fact it is SERIOUSLY too low.
2. MANY "models" project only 1 wave.
1. Deaths statistic is being treated as factual even when we know it& #39;s a WILD undercount. This is deeply irresponsible. EVERY sentence referencing the stats MUST include the fact it is SERIOUSLY too low.
2. MANY "models" project only 1 wave.
SOME LINKS (but there are many out there):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/1... href=" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html
I">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/0... *strongly* suspect red state/rural counts are WAY off, given inadequacy of testing & political incentives.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html
I">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/0... *strongly* suspect red state/rural counts are WAY off, given inadequacy of testing & political incentives.
Why does this matter? By underplaying the human cost of our irresponsibly delayed social distancing, "stats based" people are facilitating a premature return to normalcy.
Statistics *seem objective,* and so limitations must be highlighted.
Statistics *seem objective,* and so limitations must be highlighted.
(btw, we were last in office physically 3/10 at @revolvingdoorDC/ @ceprdc)
One sports context: Utilizing "deaths due to COVID-19" without adjusting for the undercount is like reporting "home runs hit by the 1990s Colorado Rockies" without noting Coors Field& #39;s unique impact on baseball.
It& #39;s tendentiously correct and wildly wrong at the same time!
It& #39;s tendentiously correct and wildly wrong at the same time!
As I keep yelling about... there is major variability in how many COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted and the right wing UK government is behaving as expected. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly-coronavirus-special-edition/2020/04/13/open-and-shut-488897
cc:">https://www.politico.com/newslette... @mattyglesias @NateSilver538
cc:">https://www.politico.com/newslette... @mattyglesias @NateSilver538
https://twitter.com/jeffhauser/status/1250161809702760448">https://twitter.com/jeffhause...
https://twitter.com/jeffhauser/status/1249874378227167232">https://twitter.com/jeffhause...
Our nursing home count is a mess: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/more-2-200-coronavirus-deaths-nursing-homes-federal-government-isn-n1181026">https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-n...
Good that New York City is belatedly *beginning* the incomplete process of updating their statistics; crazy that just recently death certificates would mention "COVID" & yet the deaths had been excluded from the stats "data analysts" trumpet.
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/14/new-york-city-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-by-3-700-after-uncounted-fatalities-are-added-1275931">https://www.politico.com/states/ne...
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/14/new-york-city-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-by-3-700-after-uncounted-fatalities-are-added-1275931">https://www.politico.com/states/ne...
I bet Florida under criminally negligent Governor @GovRonDeSantis is VASTLY worse in undercounts. If you see a stat analyst taking Florida stats literally or seriously... adjust your priors on their analysis.
NYC -->> https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250443107491028992">https://twitter.com/MarkLevin...
Florida is going to be such a catastrophe and I am skeptical the public stats will reflect that for a while.... https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article241996231.html">https://www.miamiherald.com/news/heal...
Ugh. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article241996231.html">https://www.miamiherald.com/news/heal...
Here& #39;s @propublica on the unattributed death issue. By failing to account for deaths accurately we& #39;re encouraging unwise public policy and distorting public opinion.
Too many striking visual representations with far too little humility about data quality. https://www.propublica.org/article/theres-been-a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-in-several-cities-that-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-than-reported">https://www.propublica.org/article/t...
Too many striking visual representations with far too little humility about data quality. https://www.propublica.org/article/theres-been-a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-in-several-cities-that-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-than-reported">https://www.propublica.org/article/t...
Federalism in America, man. https://www.propublica.org/article/theres-been-a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-in-several-cities-that-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-than-reported">https://www.propublica.org/article/t...
Yeah, between penal incarceration and the incarceration of migrants... I bet thousands of human beings are dying without being counted. https://twitter.com/TomJawetz/status/1250518674689097731">https://twitter.com/TomJawetz...
WHEN WILL THESE HANDLES AND WEBSITES quit misleading people? https://twitter.com/jeffhauser/status/1251123746624151553">https://twitter.com/jeffhause...
Do I think that nursing home TRAGEDIES like this are limited to NYC? https://twitter.com/rontkim/status/1251121549643522048
Do">https://twitter.com/rontkim/s... we think the situation in Florida is going okay???? https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article241966186.html">https://www.miamiherald.com/news/stat...
Do">https://twitter.com/rontkim/s... we think the situation in Florida is going okay???? https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article241966186.html">https://www.miamiherald.com/news/stat...
Read this thread and recognize that there is a political movement which wants FEWER RULES ON HOW "PRIVATE SECTOR" spend taxpayer money in their nursing homes/assisted living facilities: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/nyregion/new-york-nj-nursing-homes-coronavirus-deaths.html
There">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/1... are no "2 sides" to the argument for Big Government Regulation.
There">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/1... are no "2 sides" to the argument for Big Government Regulation.
Here I was on April 1st telling everyone that the leaders of the "narrative" were pretending statistics that were being juked were being objective.
I bet a ton of the pushback on social distancing is due to the stat juking understating COVID-19& #39;s impact: https://twitter.com/jeffhauser/status/1245347547880796161">https://twitter.com/jeffhause...
I bet a ton of the pushback on social distancing is due to the stat juking understating COVID-19& #39;s impact: https://twitter.com/jeffhauser/status/1245347547880796161">https://twitter.com/jeffhause...
More like this headline from the @ajc, please. https://www.ajc.com/news/undercount-covid-deaths-means-full-effects-georgia-unknown/Cg1na060vIiOH6VM3ecztO/">https://www.ajc.com/news/unde...
I mean, how can you justify limiting "statistics" purported to be complete on COVID-19 deaths to positive tests when American testing capacity is tragically inadequate?
My 3+ weeks of obsession on this point is because we& #39;re going to see premature re-openings (and inadequate provision of free food, shelter, and health care to the vulnerable) due to the sense the pandemic is overrated... because of juked "statistics."
That Boris Johnson& #39;s United Kingdom is juking the stats is... unsurprising, although there may be hopes for improvement there. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/number-coronavirus-deaths-care-homes-could-high-7500-according/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020...
GREAT TO HAVE The Economist on the case: https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1250815341044924425">https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/st...
Pennsylvania undercount: https://whyy.org/articles/pa-underreported-18-of-covid-deaths-this-week-officials-blame-computer-glitches/">https://whyy.org/articles/...
Good to have @thedailybeast on the case: https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-covid-19-death-undercount-is-scarier-than-you-think?ref=home">https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-covid...
The "re-open fast" case is basically based on juked stats, and everyone who navel gazes about stats on Twitter without emphasizing the omissions is encouraging reliance on inherently unreliable analysis. https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-covid-19-death-undercount-is-scarier-than-you-think?ref=home">https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-covid...
All of America is Puerto Rico now, and #COVIDー19 is #HurricaneMaria, as many of us have suggested it would be from the jump.
Hurricane Maria is too often ignored; here we were on it last fall as a possible basis for impeachment, https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/09/19/the-kitchen-table-case-for-impeaching-trump/">https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/09/1...
As I surmised upthread, UK & USA way ahead of rest of developed world in... covering-up COVID-19 deaths. Some of the tragic truth is getting out there now.
England & Wales: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/coronavirus-deaths-in-care-homes-in-england-and-wales-more-than-quadruple-in-a-week">https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
England & Wales: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/coronavirus-deaths-in-care-homes-in-england-and-wales-more-than-quadruple-in-a-week">https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Good to see the @nytimes joining in my obsession about representing the true cost of the COVID-19 crisis -- far too much ostensibly objective elevation of CRAP statistics on deaths leading people to downplay immense losses. #link-567f32d9">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-live-world-cases-global.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=global&index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage #link-567f32d9">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/2...
https://twitter.com/jeffhauser/status/1252945246025105408">https://twitter.com/jeffhause...
Important! Also: Every reason to fear "immunity" may not last that long, so people who fended off COVID-19 last winter might be susceptible to re-infection as soon as next winter or spring. https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/First-known-U-S-coronavirus-death-occurred-on-15217316.php">https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/ar...
Sadly influential with me, but I have seen all of these claims elsewhere as well: https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698
If">https://twitter.com/statesdj/... COVID-19 not going away anytime soon, then clear-eyed truth about known and LIKELY deaths is better than false objectivity via clear undercount "statistics."
If">https://twitter.com/statesdj/... COVID-19 not going away anytime soon, then clear-eyed truth about known and LIKELY deaths is better than false objectivity via clear undercount "statistics."
I mean *this disease is really bad* -- see, e.g., https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20...
United Kingdom is likely underestimating fatalities by more than a factor of 2, per the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab">https://www.ft.com/content/6...
MORE: https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab">https://www.ft.com/content/6...
Strokes are likely an occasional outcome of COVID-19, and probably a cause of many at home sudden deaths being omitted from ostensibly objective statistics: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20...
The FT, which had been exacerbating unwarranted belief in the accuracy of COVID-19 death totals... now has a substantial corrective out. https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c">https://www.ft.com/content/6...
Now the @washingtonpost belatedly joins this beat: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/investiga...
As Washington Post notes, the miscommunication about undercounting has been deleterious to discussing policy options/cost-benefit analysis.
Statistics tends to be perceived as "objective," & so all good faith analysts should YELL repeatedly about systemic biases within numbers.
Statistics tends to be perceived as "objective," & so all good faith analysts should YELL repeatedly about systemic biases within numbers.
BTW, for all the ghoulish anti-mass transit people out there... not only has Seoul South Korea proven an early hit from an epidemic isn& #39;t inherently bad for mass transit... cars, which are A MASSIVE public health scourge, being off the road is a huge positive. #CarsKill #climate
Read https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/?arc404=true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/investiga... on undercounts through April 11th.
Fatality undercounting is part of why people have stopped wearing masls & taking distancing seriously.
Undercounting is killing people.
Fatality undercounting is part of why people have stopped wearing masls & taking distancing seriously.
Undercounting is killing people.
Enormous stat juking going on with respect to the imprisoned. Here& #39;s a key thread on Texas -- but I wouldn& #39;t be surprised if the same is going on in FL, AL, MS, GA, AZ, and many other states. https://twitter.com/TexasObserver/status/1258512836101206016">https://twitter.com/TexasObse...
Yup, the Trump Administration is still trying to hide nursing home deaths. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/government-still-doesn-t-know-how-many-nursing-homes-have-n1202281
I">https://www.nbcnews.com/health/he... am totally curious about Florida, where SOME @GovRonDeSantis scams are known publicly -- how many are still hidden???
I">https://www.nbcnews.com/health/he... am totally curious about Florida, where SOME @GovRonDeSantis scams are known publicly -- how many are still hidden???
Here @FAIRmediawatch provides analysis of "undercounts" -- basically, a ton of states don& #39;t provide enough data to analyze undercounts yet.
Which makes them look artificially good.
But the NYT persisted, nonetheless. https://fair.org/home/nyts-real-coronavirus-death-toll-is-anything-but/">https://fair.org/home/nyts... by @JNaureckas
Which makes them look artificially good.
But the NYT persisted, nonetheless. https://fair.org/home/nyts-real-coronavirus-death-toll-is-anything-but/">https://fair.org/home/nyts... by @JNaureckas
Here& #39;s @FiveThirtyEight& #39;s take on a topic I have been obsessed with: Undercounting COVID-19 death. (I& #39;m also obsessed with the fact that COVID-19 outcomes < death can often be much worser than from a normal "flu"). https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-deaths/">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...
