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Two critical questions right now. 1. Does COVID-19 reinfect people whose antibody response is weak or absent? Evidence from China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/04/08/can-you-get-sick-with-coronavirus-again-after-youve-already-had-it-new-research-continues-to-emerge-but-the-jury-is-still-out/#6735327831a5 (1)
2. Does COVID-19 reactivate in people who have already had the infection? Evidence from Korea. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says (2)
Of course, these findings may be due to test errors. But if either of the answers are positive, it heightens the need to suppress the chain of transmission of infection - with mass community testing and tracing set up as soon as the lockdown has done its work. (3)
Wuhan used 1800 teams of five persons in each team to cover the population. In UK we wd need about 60,000 people to manage it, plus digital apps, under the supervision of public health professionals. We must plan for this NOW so we're ready when the lockdown is lifted. (4)
We also need to shorten the test-result time, the onset of symptoms-to-result time, and digital management of quarantine of cases and contacts. Teams could run drive thru swab test centres at many sites across local authorities, and do home visits. (5)
Mass community testing and digital contact tracing will help to suppress new outbreaks quickly, and prevent or prolong the time between partial lockdowns. (6)
