Thread by @bradlander, Spent some time reading about "what comes next."Short story: We're not close [...]

Spent some time reading about "what comes next."

Short story: We& #39;re not close to ready. We& #39;re not prepared for how long, how invasive, how economically catastrophic it will be. And we probably can& #39;t count on the federal gov& #39;t to get us there.

So we better get moving. 1/

Let& #39;s be clear first: We have another several weeks of physical distancing, regardless.

Even if we were ready with testing, tracing & quarantine (and we are far from ready), we& #39;d still want several weeks of declining numbers.

My guess: another ~6 weeks of this phase. 2/

What should come next would broadly look like:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Small blue diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Small blue diamond">Eased but still significant physical distancing

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Small blue diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Small blue diamond">Massively scaled up testing, tracing, quarantine

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Small blue diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Small blue diamond">Those w/pre-existing conditions remain distanced

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Small blue diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Small blue diamond">Massive econ relief

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Small blue diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Small blue diamond">Work toward vaccine/palliative care (approx 18 mos)

3/

. @ezraklein has a good review of four plans for the "test, trace, quarantine" effort, reviewing plans from @AEI, @amprog, @paulmromer, and Harvard& #39;s Safra Center. https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10...

https://www.votwitter.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

"I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary."

There is no plan to return to normal.

https://www.votwitter.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

And @washingtonpost is reporting today on an effort by some governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits, that includes the same broad test/trace/quarantine approach: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/10/contact-tracing-coronavirus-strategy/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/20...

A plan to defeat coronavirus finally emerges, but it’s not from the White House

In absence of White House direction, states and America’s top experts have crafted and begun pursuing a national strategy against coronavirus. The question is whether their effort can succeed without...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/10/contact-tracing-coronavirus-strategy/

But it& #39;s hard to imagine that we& #39;ll be ready soon with the massive scale of testing, tracing, and quarantine that is required to make any of that possible.

Here& #39;s the story just on testing: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21214218/trump-coronavirus-testing-social-distancing">https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10...

https://www.votwitter.com/2020/4/10/21214218/trump-coronavirus-testing-social-distancing

America is still failing on coronavirus testing

To end social distancing, we need mass testing. America is not there yet.

https://www.votwitter.com/2020/4/10/21214218/trump-coronavirus-testing-social-distancing

For next phase, we& #39;ll need either a super-massive scale of testing (ala @paumromer& #39;s everyone every 14 days),

or we& #39;ll need extremely invasive contact-tracing technology, which raises lots of hard questions about feasibility, surveillance, enforcement. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-24/coronavirus-singapore-trace-together">https://www.latimes.com/world-nat...

Singapore says its coronavirus app helps the public. Critics say it's government surveillance

TraceTogether's app launch comes as concerns over privacy and intrusive surveillance are rising as governments try to curb the pandemic.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-24/coronavirus-singapore-trace-together

Apple and Google are teaming up to develop an opt-in contact-tracing tool using Bluetooth technology that could help public health officials track the spread of COVID-19. https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/10/21216675/apple-google-covid-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app">https://www.vox.com/recode/20...

https://www.votwitter.com/recode/2020/4/10/21216675/apple-google-covid-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app

Apple and Google want to turn your phone into a Covid-tracking machine

The new contact-tracing tool, explained.

https://www.votwitter.com/recode/2020/4/10/21216675/apple-google-covid-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app

But even beyond the privacy, feasibility, and enforcement concerns (and there are many), it& #39;s not clear bluetooth apps will really work.

So we will need to hire a lot of people to work on contact tracing.

By definition, this is a local & state effort. https://www.theverge.com/interface/2020/4/10/21215267/covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-bluetooth-coronavirus-flaws-public-health">https://www.theverge.com/interface...

Why Bluetooth apps are bad at discovering new cases of COVID-19

False positives and rampant privacy issues suggest we need to make a new investment in hiring people. Public health workers offer a blueprint for contact tracing

https://www.theverge.com/interface/2020/4/10/21215267/covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-bluetooth-coronavirus-flaws-public-health

This gets to a critical point. We& #39;d be much much much better off with a federal government able to coordinate all of this. But b/c Trump, we don& #39;t have it.

So, per @StephenLevin33, NYS & NYC & tri-state partnership needs to step up together on all this. https://twitter.com/StephenLevin33/status/1248728139087347717?s=20">https://twitter.com/StephenLe...

https://twitter.com/StephenLevin33/status/1248728139087347717?s=20

We& #39;re also going to need A LOT MORE SPACE to quarantine people who test positive or have been in contact w/someone. For overcrowded families, folks in shelters, jails, etc.

That& #39;s why call for 30,000 hotel rooms is so essential.

Again, @StephenLevin33: https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-where-the-homeless-should-go-20200411-7nyv376hqffwbdxdgcyvr3mlua-story.html">https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/n...

Where the homeless should go: No one should be on the street or in a congregate shelter with...

As New York pushes through the apex of the current coronavirus crisis, Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio still have not shown any real plan to house and protect New Yorkers who are homeless.

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-where-the-homeless-should-go-20200411-7nyv376hqffwbdxdgcyvr3mlua-story.html

During all this, folks w/ underlying conditions, incl. seniors, are going to need to stay largely isolated.

Test/trace/quarantine + mod physical distancing can dramatically slow the spread. But it will not protect the most vulnerable.

Huge changes needed to make this livable.

And eased but still significant form of social distancing (no sporting events, concerts, movies, conventions; reduced capacity for restaurants) will still mean massive economic hardship. Maybe we can get back to 80% of "normal" econ activity. But that& #39;s an 18-mos long depression.

So we are going to need economic relief & stimulus that is far more ambitious than what has been put in place so far.

Like @PramilaJayapal& #39;s paycheck protection https://bit.ly/2y8ZJ8A ">https://bit.ly/2y8ZJ8A&q... and @ewarren& #39;s broad stimulus https://bit.ly/39Ydmoj .">https://bit.ly/39Ydmoj&q...

My Updated Plan to Address the Coronavirus Crisis

The actions taken by the Trump administration fall far short of the big public health and economic measures we need to manage the coronavirus.

https://bit.ly/2y8ZJ8A

And if Trump, McConnell, and GOP xenophobes continue to block aid to immigrants, then cities & states are going to need to step up with emergency cash assistance.

Austin & Minneapolis have gotten started on this model of @LocalProgress, but much more will be needed.

"What comes next" depressing reading, especially because it is really hard to see how we will stand up the "test, trace, quarantine" in the next few weeks. And we can& #39;t safely leave this phase of physical distancing until we have it.

But we are capable of it. So let& #39;s get to it.

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