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Spent some time reading about "what comes next."
Short story: We're not close to ready. We're not prepared for how long, how invasive, how economically catastrophic it will be. And we probably can't count on the federal gov't to get us there.
So we better get moving. 1/
Short story: We're not close to ready. We're not prepared for how long, how invasive, how economically catastrophic it will be. And we probably can't count on the federal gov't to get us there.
So we better get moving. 1/
Let's be clear first: We have another several weeks of physical distancing, regardless.
Even if we were ready with testing, tracing & quarantine (and we are far from ready), we'd still want several weeks of declining numbers.
My guess: another ~6 weeks of this phase. 2/
Even if we were ready with testing, tracing & quarantine (and we are far from ready), we'd still want several weeks of declining numbers.
My guess: another ~6 weeks of this phase. 2/
What should come next would broadly look like:
Eased but still significant physical distancing
Massively scaled up testing, tracing, quarantine
Those w/pre-existing conditions remain distanced
Massive econ relief
Work toward vaccine/palliative care (approx 18 mos)
3/
Eased but still significant physical distancingMassively scaled up testing, tracing, quarantineThose w/pre-existing conditions remain distancedMassive econ reliefWork toward vaccine/palliative care (approx 18 mos)3/
. @ezraklein has a good review of four plans for the "test, trace, quarantine" effort, reviewing plans from @AEI, @amprog, @paulmromer, and Harvard's Safra Center. https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment
And @washingtonpost is reporting today on an effort by some governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits, that includes the same broad test/trace/quarantine approach: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/10/contact-tracing-coronavirus-strategy/
But it's hard to imagine that we'll be ready soon with the massive scale of testing, tracing, and quarantine that is required to make any of that possible.
Here's the story just on testing: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21214218/trump-coronavirus-testing-social-distancing
Here's the story just on testing: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21214218/trump-coronavirus-testing-social-distancing
For next phase, we'll need either a super-massive scale of testing (ala @paumromer's everyone every 14 days),
or we'll need extremely invasive contact-tracing technology, which raises lots of hard questions about feasibility, surveillance, enforcement. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-24/coronavirus-singapore-trace-together
or we'll need extremely invasive contact-tracing technology, which raises lots of hard questions about feasibility, surveillance, enforcement. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-24/coronavirus-singapore-trace-together
Apple and Google are teaming up to develop an opt-in contact-tracing tool using Bluetooth technology that could help public health officials track the spread of COVID-19. https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/10/21216675/apple-google-covid-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app
But even beyond the privacy, feasibility, and enforcement concerns (and there are many), it's not clear bluetooth apps will really work.
So we will need to hire a lot of people to work on contact tracing.
By definition, this is a local & state effort. https://www.theverge.com/interface/2020/4/10/21215267/covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-bluetooth-coronavirus-flaws-public-health
So we will need to hire a lot of people to work on contact tracing.
By definition, this is a local & state effort. https://www.theverge.com/interface/2020/4/10/21215267/covid-19-contact-tracing-apps-bluetooth-coronavirus-flaws-public-health
This gets to a critical point. We'd be much much much better off with a federal government able to coordinate all of this. But b/c Trump, we don't have it.
So, per @StephenLevin33, NYS & NYC & tri-state partnership needs to step up together on all this. https://twitter.com/StephenLevin33/status/1248728139087347717?s=20
So, per @StephenLevin33, NYS & NYC & tri-state partnership needs to step up together on all this. https://twitter.com/StephenLevin33/status/1248728139087347717?s=20
We're also going to need A LOT MORE SPACE to quarantine people who test positive or have been in contact w/someone. For overcrowded families, folks in shelters, jails, etc.
That's why call for 30,000 hotel rooms is so essential.
Again, @StephenLevin33: https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-where-the-homeless-should-go-20200411-7nyv376hqffwbdxdgcyvr3mlua-story.html
That's why call for 30,000 hotel rooms is so essential.
Again, @StephenLevin33: https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-where-the-homeless-should-go-20200411-7nyv376hqffwbdxdgcyvr3mlua-story.html
During all this, folks w/ underlying conditions, incl. seniors, are going to need to stay largely isolated.
Test/trace/quarantine + mod physical distancing can dramatically slow the spread. But it will not protect the most vulnerable.
Huge changes needed to make this livable.
Test/trace/quarantine + mod physical distancing can dramatically slow the spread. But it will not protect the most vulnerable.
Huge changes needed to make this livable.
And eased but still significant form of social distancing (no sporting events, concerts, movies, conventions; reduced capacity for restaurants) will still mean massive economic hardship. Maybe we can get back to 80% of "normal" econ activity. But that's an 18-mos long depression.
So we are going to need economic relief & stimulus that is far more ambitious than what has been put in place so far.
Like @PramilaJayapal's paycheck protection https://bit.ly/2y8ZJ8A and @ewarren's broad stimulus https://bit.ly/39Ydmoj .
Like @PramilaJayapal's paycheck protection https://bit.ly/2y8ZJ8A and @ewarren's broad stimulus https://bit.ly/39Ydmoj .
And if Trump, McConnell, and GOP xenophobes continue to block aid to immigrants, then cities & states are going to need to step up with emergency cash assistance.
Austin & Minneapolis have gotten started on this model of @LocalProgress, but much more will be needed.
Austin & Minneapolis have gotten started on this model of @LocalProgress, but much more will be needed.
"What comes next" depressing reading, especially because it is really hard to see how we will stand up the "test, trace, quarantine" in the next few weeks. And we can't safely leave this phase of physical distancing until we have it.
But we are capable of it. So let's get to it.
But we are capable of it. So let's get to it.
