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US Coronavirus Update for Friday, April 10, 2020
~ The worst day so far…even as things improve
• Highest day for US deaths in the pandemic: 2,021
1 American died every 45 seconds from covid-19 on Fri, 4/10/20
• Highest day for new cases being confirmed: 35,070
~ The worst day so far…even as things improve
• Highest day for US deaths in the pandemic: 2,021
1 American died every 45 seconds from covid-19 on Fri, 4/10/20
• Highest day for new cases being confirmed: 35,070
2/ Fatalities First, Apr 10, 2020
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Fri, April 10: 18,693
• Increase in the last 24 hours: 2,021 (+12%)
--> Single deadliest day in the US epidemic
--> 28 days to reach 2,000 deaths total (3/1-3/28)
--> 24 hours to add 2,000 deaths (4/10)
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Fri, April 10: 18,693
• Increase in the last 24 hours: 2,021 (+12%)
--> Single deadliest day in the US epidemic
--> 28 days to reach 2,000 deaths total (3/1-3/28)
--> 24 hours to add 2,000 deaths (4/10)
3/ With that kind of death toll, where is the improvement?
Rate of increase in deaths continues its slow but determined fall.
Rate of increase in deaths, starting Fri, 4/3:
Fri: +20%
Sat: +18%
Sun: +15%
Mon: +13%
Tue +18%
Wed +15%
Thu: +13%
Fri: +12%
Rate of increase in deaths continues its slow but determined fall.
Rate of increase in deaths, starting Fri, 4/3:
Fri: +20%
Sat: +18%
Sun: +15%
Mon: +13%
Tue +18%
Wed +15%
Thu: +13%
Fri: +12%
4/ With the exception of Tue, April 7, rate of increase in deaths has fallen every day for a week.
And last Friday's increase, of 20%, looked optimistic at the time.
Rate of increase in deaths:
Fri, Mar 22: 32%
Fri, Mar 27: 32%
Fri, Apr 3: 20%
Fri, Apr 10: 12%
And last Friday's increase, of 20%, looked optimistic at the time.
Rate of increase in deaths:
Fri, Mar 22: 32%
Fri, Mar 27: 32%
Fri, Apr 3: 20%
Fri, Apr 10: 12%
5/ Small side note which is now clear. There's a weekend-related quirk in the way deaths get reported.
The last three Tuesdays, rise in deaths has been a spike — higher than the days around it.
3/23: 34% ~ 41% ~ 20%
3/30: 22% ~ 30% ~ 31% ~ 16%
4/6: 13% ~ 18% - 15%
The last three Tuesdays, rise in deaths has been a spike — higher than the days around it.
3/23: 34% ~ 41% ~ 20%
3/30: 22% ~ 30% ~ 31% ~ 16%
4/6: 13% ~ 18% - 15%
6/ Fri, total deaths rose 12% and totaled 2,021.
If deaths today rise 11%, new deaths will be 2,056.
If deaths Sun rise 10%, new deaths will be 2,075.
That is, the rate of increase could continue to fall 1 percentage point but number of deaths could again hit a new peak.
If deaths today rise 11%, new deaths will be 2,056.
If deaths Sun rise 10%, new deaths will be 2,075.
That is, the rate of increase could continue to fall 1 percentage point but number of deaths could again hit a new peak.
7/ If you go back to the end of March (3/29), we did the math on the doubling rate of deaths then, which was 3 days.
Calculated deaths, 4/3: 6,200
Actual deaths, 4/3: 7,152
Calculated deaths, 4/10: 31,200
Actual deaths, 4/10: 18,693
Calculated deaths, 4/3: 6,200
Actual deaths, 4/3: 7,152
Calculated deaths, 4/10: 31,200
Actual deaths, 4/10: 18,693
8/ One week ago, deaths were running above the calculation by 15%.
Today, deaths are 40% below the calculation.
That isn't a 'failure' of the prediction. It was based on what had happened the previous 2 weeks.
The lower number of deaths is because we stayed at home.
Today, deaths are 40% below the calculation.
That isn't a 'failure' of the prediction. It was based on what had happened the previous 2 weeks.
The lower number of deaths is because we stayed at home.
9/ That is 12,507 people who aren't dead in the last week, because Americans are staying at home.
(Not to mention 350,000 people not newly sick. At least.)
(Not to mention 350,000 people not newly sick. At least.)
10/ Now new cases.
• Total confirmed US cases, Fri, April 10: 500,399
• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 35,070 (+ 8%)
--> Largest 1-day increase in cases in US pandemic
--> 3rd day in a row for a new peak
--> Absolute number of new cases rises 5th day in a row
• Total confirmed US cases, Fri, April 10: 500,399
• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 35,070 (+ 8%)
--> Largest 1-day increase in cases in US pandemic
--> 3rd day in a row for a new peak
--> Absolute number of new cases rises 5th day in a row
11/ Reminder: To begin to consider coronavirus infections on the down-hill slope to 'reopening,' we need 14 days in a row where new cases are less than the previous day.
We haven't started that. Just the opposite, each day for 5 days they have been more than the previous day.
We haven't started that. Just the opposite, each day for 5 days they have been more than the previous day.
12/ Our total number of cases is so large now that even progress can feel discouraging.
Jan 20: 1 confirmed US case
Mar 27: 101,657 cases (77 days)
Apr 1: 215,417 cases (5 days)
Apr 4: 308,850 cases (3 days)
Apr 8: 431,838 cases (4 days)
Apr 10: 500,399 cases (2 days)
Jan 20: 1 confirmed US case
Mar 27: 101,657 cases (77 days)
Apr 1: 215,417 cases (5 days)
Apr 4: 308,850 cases (3 days)
Apr 8: 431,838 cases (4 days)
Apr 10: 500,399 cases (2 days)
13/ It took 77 days to get to 100,000 confirmed cases, it took 5 days to add the next 100,000, and we've added 100,000 new cases in less than 5 days three times since then.
14/ But as with every day going back 15 days, the rate of increase in new cases fell again from Thursday to Friday.
Sun: 9.24%
Mon: 8.96%
Tue: 8.51%
Wed: 8.28%
Thu: 7.75%
Fri: 7.54%
Friday's rate of increase was 1.7 percentage points lower than Sunday's.
Sun: 9.24%
Mon: 8.96%
Tue: 8.51%
Wed: 8.28%
Thu: 7.75%
Fri: 7.54%
Friday's rate of increase was 1.7 percentage points lower than Sunday's.
15/ Even the relatively small fall during this week of 1.7 percentage points translates to 24,000 fewer cases this morning than we would have had at Sunday's rate of increase.
16/ Today, the absolute number of new cases is very likely to hit a new record again (as with deaths). The rate of new cases is falling, but very slowly.
As the number of new cases in New York State has leveled off (it has fallen slightly 2 days in a row), other states grow.
As the number of new cases in New York State has leveled off (it has fallen slightly 2 days in a row), other states grow.
17/ At the moment, according to the NYTimes data, no state with significant population has cases rising dramatically or steadily.
A review of the week for a few:
• FL, steady at +1,000 cases a day
• IL, steady at +1,400 cases a day
(data inconsistent)
...
A review of the week for a few:
• FL, steady at +1,000 cases a day
• IL, steady at +1,400 cases a day
(data inconsistent)
...
18/ States, con't…
• IN, not dropping, +500 cases a day
• KY, small numbers, but recent spike (+350), not dropping
• MD, not dropping, +500 a day
• MA, going up at +1,500 a day
• MN, steady increase, but small absolute numbers, +100 a day
...
• IN, not dropping, +500 cases a day
• KY, small numbers, but recent spike (+350), not dropping
• MD, not dropping, +500 a day
• MA, going up at +1,500 a day
• MN, steady increase, but small absolute numbers, +100 a day
...
19/ States, con't…
• NJ, not going down, +3,000 new cases a day, 10 days in row
• PA, not going down, +1,500 cases a day, 5 days in a row
• TX, not going down, +800 cases a day, 5 days in a row
...
• NJ, not going down, +3,000 new cases a day, 10 days in row
• PA, not going down, +1,500 cases a day, 5 days in a row
• TX, not going down, +800 cases a day, 5 days in a row
...
20/ States, fini…
• VA, not going down, +400 cases a day
• WI, small numbers, but not going down, +150 cases a day
...>
• VA, not going down, +400 cases a day
• WI, small numbers, but not going down, +150 cases a day
...>
21/ If you want to look up day-by-day state data on cases & deaths, this @washingtonpost page is updated and easy to use (you have to pick cases or deaths in each chart). https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/
21/ What's the bottom line?
No state, for now, is allowing cases to 'run their course' anymore. There is no state where the rate of increase in new cases is itself increasing.
No state, for now, is allowing cases to 'run their course' anymore. There is no state where the rate of increase in new cases is itself increasing.
