As we all grow weary of lockdowns & restrictions, & some case-counts seem to plateau, there& #39;s restlessness towards ending these to limit economic harm & & #39;get back to normal& #39;

Let me be very, very clear:
There is no cheap or easy way out of this pandemic.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2

1/n

While the restrictions currently in place are damaging economically & socially, they are *working* - & saving lives.

There seems to be a bit of a fantasy that because things & #39;aren& #39;t so bad now,& #39; we can start lifting restrictions & things will just be & #39;normal& #39; again. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💰" title="Money bag" aria-label="Emoji: Money bag">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌞" title="Sun with face" aria-label="Emoji: Sun with face">

2/n

I cannot emphasise enough how much this *is not the case*. Restrictions are working - the minute we ease them, the virus will quickly regain ground! https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☠️" title="Skull and crossbones" aria-label="Emoji: Skull and crossbones">

There is no short cut way #COVID19 isn& #39;t going to continue to cost a lot. But we have a choice in *where* those costs are

3/n

3 main options:

1. Lift restrictions. Cost = Lives, hospitals, economy. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☠️" title="Skull and crossbones" aria-label="Emoji: Skull and crossbones">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💸" title="Money with wings" aria-label="Emoji: Money with wings">
2. Continue strict restrictions until vaccine. Cost = Economy, society, mental https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💸" title="Money with wings" aria-label="Emoji: Money with wings">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙁" title="Slightly frowning face" aria-label="Emoji: Slightly frowning face">
3. #TestTraceIsolate Cost = Equipment, personpower, organisation https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔬" title="Microscope" aria-label="Emoji: Microscope">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👩🏻‍🔬" title="Woman scientist (light skin tone)" aria-label="Emoji: Woman scientist (light skin tone)">

(the hashtag is a spoiler)

4/n

1. Lift restrictions

The virus isn& #39;t less dangerous now: we are stopping it with restrictions. As soon as we relax, the virus *will* return - if we do nothing, it will kill millions & hospitalise millions more. Do we really think the economy will be & #39;normal& #39; through this?

5/n

@voxdotcom sums it up: "It imagines that we simply let a highly lethal virus kill perhaps millions of Americans, hospitalize 10s of millions more, & crush the health system, while the rest of us go about our daily economic & social business"
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

6/n">https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10...

2. Continue strict restrictions until a vaccine

While this may contain the virus, it& #39;s simply unsustainable. People will start breaking lockdowns, & the economic cost will grow unbearable. Deaths will rise from other causes, like suicide, or bloodclots caused by immobility.

7/n

3. #TestTraceIsolate

No, this option isn& #39;t easy. And yes, it& #39;ll cost money & take organisation. But if really want to get back to anything like & #39;normal& #39; - here& #39;s our best chance.

There are variations in how it might work in practice, but the theory is the same:

8/n

We must *increase testing* to have a better measure of the epidemic in our population & to allow people testing positive to *isolate* ASAP. Then, their contacts must be *traced* so that they too can *isolate* & be *tested*.

But the rest of us can continue our lives!

9/n

However it& #39;s done, this will require a *big* step up in effort & coordination - there& #39;s no doubt about that. But to paraphrase Roosevelt: "Nothing worth doing comes without effort."

The thing is - the other options aren& #39;t less costly. They aren& #39;t really other options.

10/n

*There is no cheap & easy way out of this pandemic*

It& #39;s going to be hard, cost $$ money, & require huge effort

Or, we kill people & the economy.

The sooner we accept our path - our & #39;Apollo mission& #39; ( @trvrb), the sooner we progress!

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #TestTraceIsolate

11/11

If you enjoyed my thread & other content, would you consider a donation - not to me! - but to help ramp up #COVID19 sequencing globally? We do better science w more diverse https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧬" title="DNA" aria-label="Emoji: DNA">!

Read more about our goal, why sequencing #SARSCoV2 matters, & donate here!
http://emmahodcroft.github.io/sequencing-fund.html">https://emmahodcroft.github.io/sequencin...