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When can we get UK out of lock-down?
It is a political question.
Currently we have about 5,000 new infections and 1,000 deaths a day.
Once we have ~20 new infections and ~5 deaths per day, is the right time to stop lockdown.
Anything else will kill us and the economy.
1/8
It is a political question.
Currently we have about 5,000 new infections and 1,000 deaths a day.
Once we have ~20 new infections and ~5 deaths per day, is the right time to stop lockdown.
Anything else will kill us and the economy.
1/8
Our aim should be to vanquish the virus.
China and New Zealand trying this, and have minimal deaths and will have higher economic output than UK and less unemployment.
Nothing really else works, get rid of the virus, and then re-open the economy.
2/8
China and New Zealand trying this, and have minimal deaths and will have higher economic output than UK and less unemployment.
Nothing really else works, get rid of the virus, and then re-open the economy.
2/8
The plan to get rid is the same I have set out before.
Tight (not soft) lock-down for 4 weeks
increased testing
closed borders
+ masks (home-made) for all in shops/transport/work
If strict lock-down, new infections should stop within 2 weeks.
3/8
Tight (not soft) lock-down for 4 weeks
increased testing
closed borders
+ masks (home-made) for all in shops/transport/work
If strict lock-down, new infections should stop within 2 weeks.
3/8
The British lockdown (if successful) can be followed by all European countries, all locking down strictly for the same time. EU/EFTA countries could lead the way.
This area would only have 5 land borders: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Turkey.
4/8
This area would only have 5 land borders: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Turkey.
4/8
This is really about crushing the curve, vanquishing the virus.
Any country which has eliminated the virus can open borders to other countries again. Travellers from outside would still have to adhere to a 2 week quarantine period.
5/8
Any country which has eliminated the virus can open borders to other countries again. Travellers from outside would still have to adhere to a 2 week quarantine period.
5/8
Testing/tracing/isolating is as important to crush the curve as a strict lockdown. So more tests.
Extreme vigilance will have to be exercised to remain case free. This is a job for thousands of public health officials, but it would only cost £16bn.
https://twitter.com/rad_econ/status/1247993685696004097?s=20
6/8
Extreme vigilance will have to be exercised to remain case free. This is a job for thousands of public health officials, but it would only cost £16bn.
https://twitter.com/rad_econ/status/1247993685696004097?s=20
6/8
IS there a case for tracking apps to track possible contacts?
Yes, but unless they are mandatory for everybody going out, and have 100% reliability, they will only be of limited use.
7/8 https://twitter.com/rad_econ/status/1248679727453306881?s=20
Yes, but unless they are mandatory for everybody going out, and have 100% reliability, they will only be of limited use.
7/8 https://twitter.com/rad_econ/status/1248679727453306881?s=20
That is the plan: first turn Britain and then Europe from red zone to green zones.
They could then join other East Asian countries/NZ who have controlled the virus successfully, and expand green zones.
Then help the rest of the world to turn back to green zones over time.
8/8
They could then join other East Asian countries/NZ who have controlled the virus successfully, and expand green zones.
Then help the rest of the world to turn back to green zones over time.
8/8
