Thread on extension to transition:
1) The case for an extension to transition is overwhelming for EU & UK in the context of COVID19, both in terms of difficulties of negotiating & due to its aggrevating economic impact http://www.epc.eu/en/publications/The-need-for-a-longer-transiti~30cc30

2) EU is very likely to agree to an extension if request comes before end of June deadline. Yet UKGov is adamant that they will not request it & there is legislation that might need to be altered to allow for it

3) Apart from ideology-driven Brexiteers, it is becoming widely acknowledged that extension will be necessary, including in parts of UKGov, the civil service & among the vast majority of the population

4) One possible outcome is a u-turn by Johnson, which would be justified by COVID19. Most commentators see this as the most likely outcome & this is what EU27 expects to happen in the end

5) To make that work, request should come before end June deadline, according to WA provisions. Afterwards, it might still be possible but there will be greater uncertainty &legal/political obstacles

6) But this might not be the plan of UKGov & Brexiteers. If you want to avoid extension but not look unreasonable, you would ask for an extension that is not acceptable to EU27 (i.e. not the one in WA) with less obligations

7)/end So either extension is inevitable & UKGov will recognise it or UKGov will try to shift blame for it not happening to EU. I suspect we will start with the latter (some signs already), big question is whether switch to former will come