Read on Twitter
Trying to make sense of Cov-19 statistics. Firstly, we have this graph, which shows a big spike in overall deaths which breaches the 5-year records. /1
Then we have this "less scary" perspective from Richard Robbins on the same numbers : /2 https://twitter.com/Richard25972121/status/1248522354667503617
The we have this perspective on the 2020 figures compared with 2015. /3 https://twitter.com/JohnDStats/status/1248738857560027139
What to make of all this ? I think it fair to say there is now clear evidence that Cov-19 has produced a measurable increase in overall mortality, i.e. "excess deaths". /4
At present, these "excess deaths" are not unprecedented (see 2015 & flu), but with exponential growth, they soon would be. But the rise in new cases seems to have levelled off, i.e. exponential growth has tailed off and we are starting to see decline in new cases daily. /5
It is still a matter for debate as to whether lockdown has been the key factor in levelling off new cases. Sweden has achieved same result w/o full lockdown. Others suggest it's only when public sees death rate climb that compliance w/ social distancing etc. takes hold. /6
But we are now also finally engaging in the other side to the equation. How much damage does lockdown impart ? Initial Govt stab at estimates suggest 150k excess deaths fromn lockdown. Sobering. /7
We need to chart our exit route w/ all these factors in mind. If the justification for lockdown was rate of CV growth & imminent prospect of ICU capacity breach, then levelling off in new cases AND new ICU capacity coming on stream, should signal end of lockdown is in sight. /8
The alternative, to maintain a permanent lockdown until a vaccine is ready, means huge economic impact (worse than great depression) & a huge number of excess deaths (~150k+) in the longer term. There's 2 sides to this equation. /9
There's no easy answers. But I still cannot see extended lockdown as sustainable or the right calculation in the long term. We need to start minimising & mitigating the impact of lockdown. /end
