What did #Russia achieve by breaking up OPEC+ early last month? Triggered big rise in #oil supply during unprecedented demand shock. New agreement now on worse terms for Russia /1
So: Russia 1. lost revenue –market analysts can estimate how much by making price assumption over past month w/out OPEC+ collapse.
2. fell out badly & publicly #KSA, sowing mistrust
3. returned to OPEC+ quickly, after signalling it cd ride out low prices for years.
4. failed to wipe out US shale. So bluff called, credibility and earnings hit. Hard not to see this as big unforced error for Putin-Sechin.
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