The U.S.' coronavirus outbreak appears to have gone linear, with about 33,000 new cases and 2000 deaths each day. But so far there is no sign of a peak and decline.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The same thing appears to be true of New York and New Jersey, site of the worst outbreak in the U.S.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

I expected New York and New Jersey to peak and decline like Italy did, and other states that shut down later to follow after a week or so. But if you look at the state curves, you'll see this didn't happen. Everywhere basically went linear at once. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

It's possible that most U.S. states will peak and decline next week, following Italy and Spain's precedent.

But it's also possible that half-assed U.S. shutdowns are simply much less effectual than Italy and Spain's harsh lockdowns, and that cases/deaths keep going up linearly.

If that's true, the U.S. will have to implement much harsher lockdowns, probably enforced by police, and suffer more weeks of economic devastation.

So let's hope that the peak and decline comes soon, because that would suck.

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