Lots of people expressing curiosity about the "sealdown" in Padarayanapura and Bapujinagar wards of Bangalore.

Let me try to do a thread only stating the facts.

Let's start with the notification on these two wards being sealed down. https://twitter.com/BBMPCOMM/status/1248521791552630784

This happened yesterday, with @BBMPCOMM tweeting that there were "5 cases" in these two wards.

5 cases across 2 wards isn't that many for a city like Bangalore. So why were these two shut down?

Let's start by looking at where they are . This map of Bangalore is from http://opencity.in/city/bengaluru  (thanks @thej for maintaining this).

As you can see, they are both tiny tiny wards in West Bangalore (look at the red specks here)

Now, all wards are approximately of the same population size (at least as of 2001 census based on which the ward lines were drawn).

So why are these two wards so tiny? Well, because they are dense.

Padarayanapura (no. 135) is REALLY DENSE. At 113000 people per square kilometre (2011 census I think), it's by far the densest ward in Bangalore.

Bapujinagar is overall in 13th position in terms of density and far less dense (but also has open spaces IIRC - graveyards etc.)

Now, we are getting into controversial territory. Fact in India is that high density urban clusters have high SC/ST population. What is the proportion of SC/ST population in these two wards?

It's 1.4% in Padarayanapura and 5.2% in Bapujinagar. Is this high or low?

On average, in Bangalore, 13% of the population is SC/ST. So these two wards have an incredibly small SC/ST population.

Let's just take the 20 densest wards and order them by SC/ST population share.

Suffice to say that these two ward have fairly low SC/ST population for a high density ward.

Now coming to Covid-19, yesterday @bbmpcomm tweeted that there were "5 cases in these two wards". Looking at data from @covid19indiaorg, there were 2 fresh cases in Bangalore yesterday.

They were listed as contacts of KA-P-168 and KA-P-169

(This was there in the data yesterday. @covid19indiaorg seems to have suddenly removed these "notes" now).

Anyway, KA-P-168 and KA-P-169 have been listed as "travelled to Delhi". Basically they attended the super-spreader event.

KA-P-168 and KA-P-169 attended the super spreader event. The 2 cases yesterday which triggered the sealdown were connected to those two.

These are highly dense areas so disease spread is a massive concern.

That's all.