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One gigantic lift machine by 00z Sunday night over the lower MS/TN Valley. Not that we didn't already know that, but dang.
Same really is true through 18z too just large scale ascent
Aids in getting these really saturated (yet insanely sheared columns)
3-6 km lapses are still 7.2 C/km in this projection though but that is some fairly skinny cape if you mentally shift the vtc parcel to the left at all.
3-6 km lapses are still 7.2 C/km in this projection though but that is some fairly skinny cape if you mentally shift the vtc parcel to the left at all.
By 18z youve got a very subtle area of lift overrunning the moisture gradient (which is right in the core of the 850mb jet and parameter space)
And then you've got the area back along the pac front under the sort of EML BUT the 850 jet core is departing to the east
And then you've got the area back along the pac front under the sort of EML BUT the 850 jet core is departing to the east
But area 1 is in that very saturated column, which I wonder if might contribute to messier storm modes/overconvecting although the 7.3 C/km lapse is I believe a little steeper than your average event (kinda wondering Lee county super in a soup of shra)
but the open warm sector itself with that 300mb jet core moving in overhead would be speed-wise in a neutral lift area although to the east where the diffluence seems to be causing that subtle area of lift I don't see a lot that would get the event going/freely convecting
But in the southeast, there always seems to be sufficient low-level moisture and heat that getting the warm sector initiation, especially that close to the gulf, isn't a huge challenge.
the way that 700mb drier layer/eml/pac front hybrid works all the way into middle tenn and north alabama is concerning though
but its also a meandering pacific upper low thats really sparking the show, and not a big diving polar kicker jet that swings in at 130 kts and drops heights like crazy. Not that it really matters - but I wonder a little bit about lapse rates
but thats a huge area of extremely favorable parameter space, would be hard I would think to not get something (maybe several somethings) of course that can tap that environment
