Number of coronavirus cases in the US just crossed 500,000 and the fatality rate is up to 3.6%. That’s because many of these people were diagnosed 2-3 weeks ago and are now succumbing to the virus. Unfortunately it’s very likely the death rate will continue increasing.

Since last weekend we’ve been adding approx 5-6% new cases per day. If the curve continues to flatten out and we add 4% new cases per day for the next week (April 11-17) that puts us at 657k going into next weekend.

If we continue to social distance and WFH (when possible) and drop new daily cases down to 3% the following week (April 18-24) that puts us at 809k cases into the following weekend.

Social distancing continues and the week of April 25-May 1 has just 2% daily increase of new cases then we’re at 929k cases heading into the first weekend of May.

The lockdowns are still in place and the rate of new cases has decreased to 1% per day for the week of May 2-8 which means we’re at 996k cases just 4 weeks from today.

At this point I don’t know if we can stay under 1 million cases. It doesn’t likely but the scarier number will be the fatality rate which is going to keep increasing especially if we’re not flattening the curve fast enough and we’re overwhelming our hospitals.

If we all do our part to help stop the spread and we allow our hospitals to help the most critical patients, I hope we only end up with a 4-5% fatality rate but I worry it could end up at 5-7% depending on what doctors, scientists and bio/pharma community is able to come up with.

This means we’re likely to see another 20-30k deaths over the next 6 weeks but it will be worse if people don’t respect the lockdowns and social distancing. I know it’s Easter weekend but please resist the temptation for large gatherings in homes, churches and backyards.

You could be asymptomatic and feel fine but walk into someone’s house and get everyone else sick. The last thing we need right now is to spike the curve because then we’re all completely screwed.

Under that scenario the lockdowns would last into the summer, thousands of business would fail, 30+ million jobs will be lost, unemployment rate will surpass 20%, colleges will stay closed, schools will stay closed, and so on. It will be absolute horror and chaos for most of us.

So please please please be smart this weekend and stay at home with your family or roommates. Stay away from any situations that could put you or others at risk.

Let’s be smart and be safe. We’ll get through this but we need everyone to do their part.

Thanks and God Bless.