I work with predictive analytics as part of my job. We debate it here related to the massive business known as the nfl and gambling. Pretty sure many remember the last election. Models are only as good as the data available and the weighting of variables. IHME has reduced >>>

IHME has reduced projections almost daily as new data has come in. I applaud the government for being data informed and cautious. There’s a big difference tho btwn being informed VS being led by data. The model is not our elected official. It should be one input to a decision.

It seems that what we really need is ample testing and tracking. Why not shift the discussion here since the curve is clearly flattened? If someone has tested positive and been isolated for weeks after recovery, why can’t they work?

If we can track when and where a positive test occurs, why can’t we be more strategic about workplaces that need to be quarantined? This model is going to show the virus spreading without distancing until there is treatment and a vaccine. You shutting this down for 12 months?

I’m supportive of the distancing through April, but if there is no easing of restrictions by May while all signs point to containment, my sympathy shifts more to those out of work. Please don’t make this partisan. Reasoned and logical discussion is what we need.