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The more I think about coronavirus, the more I think there are three key questions that need to be resolved:
1. What's the objective?
2. Should we manage risk or promote virtue?
3. How will we fund the expense we're incurring?
1/11
1. What's the objective?
2. Should we manage risk or promote virtue?
3. How will we fund the expense we're incurring?
1/11
What's the objective?
It probably isn't to maximise liberty. Public support for restrictions and economic intervention shows that. But is it to maximise public welfare or minimise the health impact of the virus? The answer to that helps answer the next question..
2/11
It probably isn't to maximise liberty. Public support for restrictions and economic intervention shows that. But is it to maximise public welfare or minimise the health impact of the virus? The answer to that helps answer the next question..
2/11
Should we be aiming for eradication or mitigation?
That depends on the costs. The longer and the more restrictive suppression measures are needed to eradicate the disease, the less attractive it becomes relative to mitigation. But stricter measures will work faster
3/11
That depends on the costs. The longer and the more restrictive suppression measures are needed to eradicate the disease, the less attractive it becomes relative to mitigation. But stricter measures will work faster
3/11
Manage risk or promote virtue?
A problem with much debate is that it has failed to weigh risks against benefits. Perhaps because we've been whipped up into a national 'wartime' fervour, responses are too often 'total war' - any price must be paid, no matter how beneficial
4/11
A problem with much debate is that it has failed to weigh risks against benefits. Perhaps because we've been whipped up into a national 'wartime' fervour, responses are too often 'total war' - any price must be paid, no matter how beneficial
4/11
How will we pay for it all?
The costs we're racking up are colossal. Those taken on by the government such as funding wages are vast but they're only a part. Spontaneously, people started demanding more costly products (mainly through much more personal space)
5/11
The costs we're racking up are colossal. Those taken on by the government such as funding wages are vast but they're only a part. Spontaneously, people started demanding more costly products (mainly through much more personal space)
5/11
And employees did the same, too. That was a huge (supply-side) shock that won't be undone until we're immune or the disease is eradicated. Regardless of how much cost is due to the virus and how much to policy, it's huge and it's going to have to be paid for.
6/11
6/11
My opinions...
Objective? Eradication seems unlikely without very long or very illiberal restrictions. My guess is that it might have been doable much earlier on (when I was sympathetic) but not now. Probably a half-way house alternating until a vaccine is found
7/11
Objective? Eradication seems unlikely without very long or very illiberal restrictions. My guess is that it might have been doable much earlier on (when I was sympathetic) but not now. Probably a half-way house alternating until a vaccine is found
7/11
Risk or virtue? Obviously risk, but if you want a short period of restrictions for eradication, risk starts to look like virtue because the cost of all risk increases.
8/11
8/11
Paying the price?
We're going to have an enormous bill to pay, regardless of what we do to shrink it. So we'll need fiscal austerity and growth-enhancing supply-side reforms to repair the books. In the meantime, we should reduce the costs by focussing on risks.
9/11
We're going to have an enormous bill to pay, regardless of what we do to shrink it. So we'll need fiscal austerity and growth-enhancing supply-side reforms to repair the books. In the meantime, we should reduce the costs by focussing on risks.
9/11
So keep larger gathering banned and social distancing, but most businesses should reopen subject to social distancing. Like Sweden, prohibit standing and enforce minimum space between tables, but allow pubs and restaurants etc to reopen.
10/11
10/11
Redirect police resources from harmless (indeed beneficial) sitting in the park alone towards preventing groups of unconnected people congregating on public transport by amending the leave-home regs so they only apply to using buses/trains/etc
11/11
11/11
