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Dr. Peter Navarro, advisor to @realDonaldTrump is quoted “My qualifications ... in terms of looking at the science is that I’m a social scientist. And I understand how to read statistical studies, whether it’s in medicine, the law, economics or whatever.” https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/politics/peter-navarro-social-scientist-cnntv/index.html
So why is this wrong? The argument is quite common - "I can do maths, stats, modelling, so therefore I can do climate change, infectious disease modelling, econometrics, transport planning, health service design..."
It's related to the failure to distinguish between technical analysis and values, which is nicely articulated by economist Paul Romer for economics here :- https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2020-02-11/dismal-kingdom
Another prominent example was the series of statisticians, none of whom understood quite as much about modelling as they thought they did, who fixated on the 'hockey stick' graph.
They understood the maths of the graph, but not the physics of climate.
They understood the maths of the graph, but not the physics of climate.
Dr. Navarro is an economist, and a US trade advisor to @realDonaldTrump
He apparently sincerely believes that his background allows him to interpret clinical data better than Dr. Fauci, who is the head of an NIH division, and an infectious diseases specialist.
He apparently sincerely believes that his background allows him to interpret clinical data better than Dr. Fauci, who is the head of an NIH division, and an infectious diseases specialist.
In the same way there are various people doing modelling on #COVID19 Many of them have backgrounds in statistics, or economics, and quite a few seem to have no experience of infectious disease epidemiology. It would be unkind to single out one or two for execration.
My point is this, a model is a flawed representation of the real world. Unless you understand the real world, and in this case the complex, and often counter-intuitive dynamics of infectious disease, you risk mistaking the representation for the reality.
Thousands of people in the UK are going to die because of this.
It is likely that millions of people will die because of lies about climate change facilitated by people who ought to have known better.
Humility is good for the soul, but also good for other peoples' lives.
It is likely that millions of people will die because of lies about climate change facilitated by people who ought to have known better.
Humility is good for the soul, but also good for other peoples' lives.
