Most people base their electoral predictions on an assumption.

That assumption is the GOP has retained or can recoup its 2016 and earlier strength.

I do not make this assumption, I know the opposite is true.

That's why I'm usually right.

The GOP's losses have only gotten worse and more frequent in the past 4 years.

"An object in motion" and all that.

It's not slowing down, it's speeding up.

We see this constantly.

GOP is underperforming with the rural vote while Dems are overperforming with the suburban and metropolitan vote.

It's been consistent in every election since the VA governor's race and Doug Jones' win in 2017.

Even the ones where the GOP squeaks it out, it isn't because they overperformed, it's because Dems came up short.