I know there's going to be a lot of in-depth examination of the severe weather setup in the Southeast for Sunday. And that one of the things that folks are looking for is potential failure modes. I get it - I've been doing it myself today. (1/)
But I think it's worth pointing this out. Just above every one of the top 15 CIPS analogs for Sun is a significant severe weather event, several are all-timers (e.g., April 27, Yazoo City, Enterprise). (2/)
There's a reason why: it's a classic synoptic severe weather setup with forecast high end kinematic and thermodynamic fields during the climatological max of severe weather season for this region. (3/)
High end severe weather somewhere in the MS/AL/LA/AR/TN region is almost certain. Long track violent TORs are more dependent upon mesoscale/ stormscale evolution that the models are just not going to pick up at this time range. (4/)
Even something you see as a clue - for failure or enhancement - in a model field or sounding at this time range may or may not actually be there in the real atmosphere come 48 hrs from now. (5/)
This is why SPC does probabilistic outlooks that are designed to be calibrated over many events. All of the large scale signs are there for a big severe/tornado event Sun - people need to be ready. If this is a case where something mesoscale mitigates it, then great! (fin/)
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