THREAD: What to make of Putin’s under-the radar initiative to use the #coronavirus crisis to normalize US-Russian relations? Putin and Trump spoke 3 times in past week. That’s the most active level of dialogue during Trump’s entire presidency--and the one w biggest results. 1/X https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/1248650330243584003

In this instance, Putin followed a playbook similar to when he tried to make common cause with George W Bush and Barack Obama on 9/11 and ISIS. While US/Russian interests, in theory, overlap in dealing with the pandemic, Putin never operates out of the goodness of his heart. 2/X

So what did Putin want and what did he achieve? He effectively played to Trump’s vanity/foibles by suggesting that only Trump could help him solve an urgent problem: the collapse of global oil prices. (Oil/gas exports generate +40% of the Russian state’s budget revenues.) 3/X

Leaving aside Putin’s & MBS’s roles as the arsonists who set this fire, Trump's been fixated on how upheaval in US oil patch threatens his political base & a cherished notion that surging US oil production could transform our foreign policy and role in places like the Mideast 4/X

The Russians approached Trump in a very clever way that circumvented normal channels. A key role was played by Kirill Dmitriev, the US-educated head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Dmitriev was one of the original architects of the OPEC+ agreement in late 2017. 5/X

Dmitriev has been entrusted by Putin in the past with sensitive assignments including a secret meeting with Erik Prince in the Seychelles in January 2017. (His wife is reportedly close to one of Putin’s daughters.) Was he asked to play this role or was he freelancing? 6/X

On Sunday Dmitriev published a fascinating yet little-noticed op-ed in an unusual place: CNBC’s website. Few foreign policy wonks read it, but this is precisely the kind of outlet Trump relies on. It's a perfect script for how to talk to Trump. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/op-ed-us-and-russia-should-work-together-to-defeat-coronavirus.html 7/X

Here’s some key passages. Note the way Dmitriev denigrates conventional thinking on US-Russian relations while playing to Trump’s sense of historical grandeur, etc. 8/X.

Dmitriev made a similar pitch live on CNBC on Monday. Classic audience-of-one move for communicating personally with Trump via a TV network he likes to watch 9/X https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/06/we-are-very-very-close-to-a-russia-saudi-oil-deal-rdifs-dmitriev.html?&qsearchterm=Kirill%20Dmitriev

Dmitriev’s polished performance is not all that surprising—he was educated at Stanford/Harvard and worked for Goldman Sachs and McKinsey early in his career. It’s all too easy to imagine someone like Jared Kushner saying, “Now, this is a man I can do business with.” 10/X

Surely it’s not a coincidence that the Russian Direct Investment Fund (Dmitriev is CEO) claimed that it had paid for 50% of the Russian shipment of PPE, ventilators, and masks kits that arrived in NY on April 1. (State Dept later said US paid 100% of the costs.) 11/X

So what does Moscow get out of the deal? First and foremost the Kremlin has cemented direct ties between the two leaders in a way that insulates this very important channel from other parts of the US govt that take a more jaundiced view of Moscow (State Dept, DoD, CIA). 12/X

It establishes a level of symmetry between two powers whose influence on the world stage is anything but symmetrical in economic/military/political terms. It could over time put Trump in closer alignment w Moscow than key allies like Germany who remain constant targets 13/X

The deal on oil markets is Trump’s first vivid illustration of the benefits of “getting along with Putin.” Given the staggering collapse of oil demand (25-30 mln bbl per day), no one should expect any miracles, but we all know that that’s not how Trump grades himself. 14/X

Rather, the politics of the deal are what matters to Trump. This deal is no different. Expect him to tout it whenever critics assert that his administration has been largely ineffectual in handling Russian misdeeds in #Ukraine and elsewhere. END