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Some thoughts on today’s briefing that may be useful.
Everybody looks at data from their own perspective.
Perfect example: people *love* county-by-county breakdowns even tho they mean very little. Counties don’t have walls.
Everybody looks at data from their own perspective.
Perfect example: people *love* county-by-county breakdowns even tho they mean very little. Counties don’t have walls.
So... we know the number of *total confirmed cases in Ireland* is not that medically important to @CMOIreland - it doesn’t tell him and his team much about how the virus is behaving today / this week so it won’t help him model and predict what it will do next week.
In the same vein, the total number of new cases on any given day is *very* important when looking to see if the curve is flattening.
So it’s important the daily figure isn’t inflated artificially by the backlog tests sent back from Germany.
The public is invested in this too.
So it’s important the daily figure isn’t inflated artificially by the backlog tests sent back from Germany.
The public is invested in this too.
Therefore it makes perfect sense to report the new daily confirmed cases in Ireland and then tell us separately about the figure of positive tests being sent back from Germany.
The latter cases are much older.
The latter cases are much older.
So, we have a daily total that the @CMOIreland is massively interested in and which the public is invested in.
But the public also wants to know how we’re doing overall.
They look at testing and total figures for this, as well as the curve. We are not doctors. This is human.
But the public also wants to know how we’re doing overall.
They look at testing and total figures for this, as well as the curve. We are not doctors. This is human.
This is where the Dept etc needs to look to reporters and editors for guidance.
We can’t give the detail they want us to give about curves and daily figures unless we know the full picture.
The total figure we report has to be uniform and precise. We have to be trusted
We can’t give the detail they want us to give about curves and daily figures unless we know the full picture.
The total figure we report has to be uniform and precise. We have to be trusted
The questions today from @ZaraKing @ShaneBeattyNews et al were to ensure we all had the correct - and uniform - total figure which included every positive test that was swabbed from the throat and nose of a person in Ireland.
Reporters had been given two different ‘totals’.
Reporters had been given two different ‘totals’.
The press release from the Department of Health did not include the German backlog. This makes sense to @CMOIreland as that figure - which didn’t include the German backlog - doesn’t have medical consequences.
It does have reporting consequences.
It does have reporting consequences.
Imagine if @thejournal_ie reported 7,054 cases and @rtenews 8,089 and @VirginMediaNews one or other etc etc
That is a significant discrepancy that would alarm. All could claim they were correct as per @roinnslainte
That is a significant discrepancy that would alarm. All could claim they were correct as per @roinnslainte
There will always be tension between reporters and state bodies in what we believe is important when telling a story. Believe me.
This is a perfect example.
This is a perfect example.
To further complicate matters, the public shouldn’t pay *too* much attention to individual day figures. Look at the curve for the week.
I delve into how to read - and not read into - data with the brilliant @jburnmurdoch on today’s @TheExplainerPod https://jrnl.ie/5070928 ">https://jrnl.ie/5070928&q...
I delve into how to read - and not read into - data with the brilliant @jburnmurdoch on today’s @TheExplainerPod https://jrnl.ie/5070928 ">https://jrnl.ie/5070928&q...
My point is that it was important to have that conversation tonight. The @CMOIreland is correct in his logic but the Dept need to be clearer with their figures.
And all of this underlines massively all of the media’s demand to get actual answers on testing capacity and delays.
And all of this underlines massively all of the media’s demand to get actual answers on testing capacity and delays.
And to return to the start: https://twitter.com/sineadocarroll/status/1248676117583736832">https://twitter.com/sineadoca...
