As #COVID19 continues on, I’ve been thinking - and updating my thoughts - on where it will take the travel industry. (Thread)

For starters, I don’t think many magazines/online publications will make it through. This is even worse than 2008. With publications furloughing employees, giving pay cuts, & seeing revenue go that will never come back, I think at least 25% of travel publications go under.

A lot of creators, YouTubers, writers, & bloggers rely on brand partnerships/advertising for income. The prospect of months of 0 income is going to drive people out of the industry. I think 30-40% of people might leaving if the industry remains frozen to June (which it will).

(The flip side to that is that there’s little cost to just freezing your online platform and coming back to it at a later date. However, the Internet is a fickle beast, and if you’re not producing anything for a long time, it will move past you.)

I think that the slow pace of such measures in many countries means most of the world will be in lockdown until at least the middle of May if not early June. Too many people are behind the curve and it will take longer to keep the virus under control than most people think.

I think that means we’re looking at a much smaller travel industry for the foreseeable future. WTTC states that they expect 75 million job losses (at a rate of up to 1 mil jobs lost per day). It will take years for the industry – & the jobs – to return to pre-CODIV19 levels.

Sadly, I also think many hostels, travel start-ups, & small tour operators will go under too. Small businesses don’t keep a lot of cash on hand and, as this continues, they will just be unable to hold out. The next time you travel, you’ll notice a lot fewer options.

I think as the world opens up around the end of May/early June (provided there’s no second spike in infections), people will begin to start booking travel again for later in the summer/fall. BUT….

I think people will travel around their region before they start taking big international trips again. You’re going to see a big spike in local / regional travel as people will just be leary about catching the disease, being on planes, or getting stuck in another country.

Moreover, as companies try to fill their coffers, I think you’re going to see some insane deals for the second half of the year and first half of 2021. Companies are gonna need as much cash as they can to keep going.

And the cruise industry? Well, ships are floating petri dishes and, no matter how good the deals, most people won’t want to get on a ship for the foreseeable future. I believe this will permanently shrink the cruise industry.

But, maybe, the silver lining (and I always try to look for one) is that this will lead to more sustainable tourism as countries try to reduce crowds in hopes of keeping the virus in check and people have a change in behavior.

Whatever happens, travel is going to be a very different and smaller industry for the foreseeable future.