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@CMOIreland had a tough press conference there. @GeorgeLeeRTE confused over numbers.
I understand it now, but I think I& #39;ve found another problem...
1/13
@CMOIreland had a tough press conference there. @GeorgeLeeRTE confused over numbers.
I understand it now, but I think I& #39;ve found another problem...
1/13
The @HSELive reports at the press conference every day at 5-9pm. Sometimes it& #39;s just a press release.
It& #39;s the most up to date number.
2/
It& #39;s the most up to date number.
2/
The total has risen from 6,574 to 8,089 in one day, an increase of 1,515.
@CMOIreland says if he& #39;s asked, *this* is the number of cases he will say exists in Ireland *right now*.
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@CMOIreland says if he& #39;s asked, *this* is the number of cases he will say exists in Ireland *right now*.
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The problem is that two numbers were given tonight.
7,054 and 8,089
The difference between the two is the German lab results.
4/
https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/">https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7...
7,054 and 8,089
The difference between the two is the German lab results.
4/
https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/">https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7...
So if I illustrate this, you can see that 1,035 tests from German labs comprise most of the increase.
Nothing untoward here by @CMOIreland, they& #39;re just being upfront that lab results skew the numbers, but increase the total.
But that& #39;s not the end of it, however.
5/
Nothing untoward here by @CMOIreland, they& #39;re just being upfront that lab results skew the numbers, but increase the total.
But that& #39;s not the end of it, however.
5/
There& #39;s a SECOND set of data released by @hpscireland. Why? Because it gives more detail (county, age etc.)
Problem is, their data is "as at midnight" each night, and it& #39;s reported with a lag, because it takes time to verify more detailed data.
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Problem is, their data is "as at midnight" each night, and it& #39;s reported with a lag, because it takes time to verify more detailed data.
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This is the @hpscireland number. You can see we& #39;re still waiting on April 9th and 10th data because of the lag.
It shows 7,071 cases (as at midnight) on April 8th.
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It shows 7,071 cases (as at midnight) on April 8th.
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So the different data points are:
7,071 - April 08 (midnight, HPSC)
6,574 - April 09 (press conference, HSE)
7,054 - April 10 (press conference, no German lab)
8,089 - April 10 (press conference, *including* German lab)
8/
7,071 - April 08 (midnight, HPSC)
6,574 - April 09 (press conference, HSE)
7,054 - April 10 (press conference, no German lab)
8,089 - April 10 (press conference, *including* German lab)
8/
But wait.....
Now it looks like the number went *down* yesterday (from 7,071 to 6,574) and then back up again today (to 7,054 AND 8,089)
AGH, I know, confusing!
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Now it looks like the number went *down* yesterday (from 7,071 to 6,574) and then back up again today (to 7,054 AND 8,089)
AGH, I know, confusing!
9/
The data from March 22nd to April 5th (Sunday) has been consistent.
Gradual increase between the 5-9pm press conferences and the midnight reporting.
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Gradual increase between the 5-9pm press conferences and the midnight reporting.
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But look at the past 5 days.
Numbers going up and...... *down*.
I could be wrong, but it looks like @HSELive and @hpscireland have had inconsistent numbers and NOBODY NOTICED
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đ˛" title="Astonished face" aria-label="Emoji: Astonished face">
11/
Numbers going up and...... *down*.
I could be wrong, but it looks like @HSELive and @hpscireland have had inconsistent numbers and NOBODY NOTICED
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11/" title="But look at the past 5 days.Numbers going up and...... *down*.I could be wrong, but it looks like @HSELive and @hpscireland have had inconsistent numbers and NOBODY NOTICED https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đ˛" title="Astonished face" aria-label="Emoji: Astonished face">11/" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Look at it zoomed in.
It shouldn& #39;t be like that at all.
I can& #39;t believe I missed it.
The whole country missed it?
Again, I could be wrong. Please tell me if I am!
12/
It shouldn& #39;t be like that at all.
I can& #39;t believe I missed it.
The whole country missed it?
Again, I could be wrong. Please tell me if I am!
12/
I& #39;ve no doubt this is an innocent mistake, unintentional human error. But it& #39;s confusing alright.
Anyway, tomorrow is another day, which means another press conference, so I& #39;m sure the media can ask about it then!!
13/13
Anyway, tomorrow is another day, which means another press conference, so I& #39;m sure the media can ask about it then!!
13/13
Thanks to @gavreilly and @SineadOCarroll for clarifying that the HPSC numbers *include* the German lab data spread over several days, but the HSE data only adds it in *today* (hence the difference).
So that explains it.
A bit woeful from @HSELive that they let this go on
14/13
So that explains it.
A bit woeful from @HSELive that they let this go on
14/13
Here& #39;s what the Press Conference numbers would look like if the German lab data was included. I& #39;ve *estimated* these numbers, making sure yesterday& #39;s change was the 427 @GeorgeLeeRTE mentioned.
That fixes it!
15/13
That fixes it!
15/13
