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Okay, here's the deal.
Staying at home isn't to prevent people from catching the Wuhan virus or dying from the Wuhan virus.
It can't do that.
People gotta eat. People gotta see the doctor. It *will* spread. People will catch it. Some will die.
This is not avoidable.
Staying at home isn't to prevent people from catching the Wuhan virus or dying from the Wuhan virus.
It can't do that.
People gotta eat. People gotta see the doctor. It *will* spread. People will catch it. Some will die.
This is not avoidable.
The reason we are staying at home, washing our hands, etc. is to try to make sure there isn't a *rapid* spreading of the disease so much that hospitals get overwhelmed.
Because then people will die who wouldn't otherwise.
Because then people will die who wouldn't otherwise.
Do you get the difference?
The impact of the Wuhan flu itself can be impacted only on the margins, as doctors figure out better treatment plans from experience.
The only thing we CAN significantly impact is collateral deaths and damage.
The impact of the Wuhan flu itself can be impacted only on the margins, as doctors figure out better treatment plans from experience.
The only thing we CAN significantly impact is collateral deaths and damage.
THAT is exactly the metric we should be looking at.
NOT total cases of Wuhan virus...that's immaterial.
Not even deaths from Wuhan virus. Not even deaths/week.
But our hospital capacity.
That's pretty much it.
NOT total cases of Wuhan virus...that's immaterial.
Not even deaths from Wuhan virus. Not even deaths/week.
But our hospital capacity.
That's pretty much it.
Washington State got hit early, before we knew what was going on. They are past the peak, they never got totally swamped.
New Orleans had lots of people catch it form Mardi Gras activities. They seem to be close to the peak. They never got totally swamped.
New Orleans had lots of people catch it form Mardi Gras activities. They seem to be close to the peak. They never got totally swamped.
New York City had health officials, a mayor, and a governor who implied you were racist if you *didn't* gather long after we knew this virus was a danger.
They seem to be past the peak now: none of their hospitals were overwhelmed to the point they had to ration care like Italy.
They seem to be past the peak now: none of their hospitals were overwhelmed to the point they had to ration care like Italy.
We know quite a bit more now about effective treatments.
We have quite a number of companies using Telework; they should continue.
People are used to going out less, that should continue.
We have more hand sanitizer and masks, and should use them.
We have quite a number of companies using Telework; they should continue.
People are used to going out less, that should continue.
We have more hand sanitizer and masks, and should use them.
All these things will continue to prevent peaks that overwhelm the hospitals.
So if our hospitals aren't being overwhelmed, and it seems like they will not be overwhelmed, because we have options, then we should turn our economy back on again.
So if our hospitals aren't being overwhelmed, and it seems like they will not be overwhelmed, because we have options, then we should turn our economy back on again.
I hope I made that clear without spelling it out too condescendingly.
The tl;dr: point is: stop talking about "Deaths" and start using "collateral deaths" as the metric for isolating or not isolating. It makes the issue much more clear.
The tl;dr: point is: stop talking about "Deaths" and start using "collateral deaths" as the metric for isolating or not isolating. It makes the issue much more clear.
