Here are some thoughts from @CrisisGroup s president @Rob_Malley and UN Director @RichardGowan1.
Bottom line: the tail of this crisis will be with us for a long time.
⇨ To war-affected populations and IDPs,
⇨ Social collapse in fragile states,
⇨ Constraints on international mediation & peacekeeping,
⇨ Use as a pretext to crush dissent, delay elections.
In Colombia, the Philippines and Cameroon armed groups committed to the ceasefire, not only because they are worried about COVID-19, but also for tactical reasons.
Overall, the #GlobalCeasefire has had a positive effect. As the disease spreads, more groups will see some advantages to signing on.
At least twelve conflict parties have signed on to UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s appeal for a worldwide cessation of hostilities amid the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a promising start, and...https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/global-ceasefire-call-deserves-un-security-councils-full-support
ISIS is saying to its disciples that now is the time to intensify efforts. It’s not because ISIS is more powerful but rather because its enemies are weaker.
Even as COVID-19’s toll mounts, the world should brace itself for attacks by ISIS, which believes it can exploit the disorder the contagion is causing. This continuing jihadist threat requires the...https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/contending-isis-time-coronavirus
@CrisisGroup recommends a humanitarian pause. The U.S. can provide sanctions relief and Iran can release detained dual nationals.
COVID-19 is ravaging Iran, due to government mismanagement exacerbated by the effects of U.S. sanctions. Instead of pointing fingers at each other, and again risking heightened military confrontati...https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/b76-flattening-curve-us-iran-tensions
The first: A global health crisis must be tackled globally with greater cooperation and pooling of resources.
The second: Porous borders and globalization are the threat.
The jury is still out on which of the two narratives will come out stronger once the dust settles.
⇨ It is hitting all countries simultaneously,
⇨ It is a health, economic, social and political crisis,
⇨ The current international order was already being questioned.
Deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the 2020 coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contain...https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/sb4-covid-19-and-conflict-seven-trends-watch