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With markets closed and a 
hot stove in the spot market, I think it's time for a thread of my choicest #uranium hot takes. Individual takes nested below.
I'm bored today, so feel free to tell me why I'm wrong.
To be clear, I'm not subtweeting anyone in specific here.
hot stove in the spot market, I think it's time for a thread of my choicest #uranium hot takes. Individual takes nested below.I'm bored today, so feel free to tell me why I'm wrong.
To be clear, I'm not subtweeting anyone in specific here.
#1: initial cores use 2x the #uranium of a reload, not 3x.
I've looked at initial core designs, and total input uranium is only about 2x of a reload batch. The average enrichment is lower than a reload. Oversimplified, but accurate. Don't keep repeating this misconception.
I've looked at initial core designs, and total input uranium is only about 2x of a reload batch. The average enrichment is lower than a reload. Oversimplified, but accurate. Don't keep repeating this misconception.
#2: I make this typo sometimes too, but its #U3O8, not U308. Yellowcake is roughly triuranium octoxide (varies a bit depending on processing), which is 3 "U" atoms to 8 "O". I don't know what isotope the number 308 would be, but it's probably on the island of stability.
#3: broker prices for UF6 and EUP are usually just formulaic:
$/kgU UF6 = $/lb U3O8 * 2.61286 + $/kgU conv.
$/kgU EUP = # of kgU UF6 * $/kgU + # of SWU * $/SWU, at chosen product (4.95%) and tails assays (0.15%?).
Play around with this EUP calculator: https://www.urenco.com/swu-calculator
$/kgU UF6 = $/lb U3O8 * 2.61286 + $/kgU conv.
$/kgU EUP = # of kgU UF6 * $/kgU + # of SWU * $/SWU, at chosen product (4.95%) and tails assays (0.15%?).
Play around with this EUP calculator: https://www.urenco.com/swu-calculator
#4: let's talk about those WNA uranium projections.
The WNA mid scenario might end up being correct, but what are the biases/unknowns?
@brandon_munro chaired that working group and he speaks with amazing clarity on the fuel cycle, so I have more faith than I normally would.
The WNA mid scenario might end up being correct, but what are the biases/unknowns?
@brandon_munro chaired that working group and he speaks with amazing clarity on the fuel cycle, so I have more faith than I normally would.
#5: speaking of working groups, quit focusing on the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG).
It might bring much-needed assistance to US #uranium producers (and maybe converters & enrichers, too!), but outside of the equity space I don't think this will have major near-term impacts.
It might bring much-needed assistance to US #uranium producers (and maybe converters & enrichers, too!), but outside of the equity space I don't think this will have major near-term impacts.
#6: the largest single-month total on the uranium futures exchange is 50,000 pounds. The standard minimum size for a single transaction in physical uranium is 100,000 pounds.
Draw your own conclusions, I guess.
Draw your own conclusions, I guess.
#7: know what the pricing *indicators* are and what they're for. This is a long discussion, and one I don't want to make eighteen tweets about today. The spot, broker spot, and (especially) the long-term indicator all fill different niches. Those niches are not always obvious.
#8: finally, if you've read this thread and want to ask any technical or nontechnical nuclear-related questions or call me exciting names, comment below. I'll tag in some folks as necessary because some of my knowledge is a bit out of date.
