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With markets closed and a 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đ„" title="Fire" aria-label="Emoji: Fire">hot stovehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đ„" title="Fire" aria-label="Emoji: Fire"> in the spot market, I think it& #39;s time for a thread of my choicest #uranium hot takes. Individual takes nested below.
I& #39;m bored today, so feel free to tell me why I& #39;m wrong.
To be clear, I& #39;m not subtweeting anyone in specific here.
I& #39;m bored today, so feel free to tell me why I& #39;m wrong.
To be clear, I& #39;m not subtweeting anyone in specific here.
#1: initial cores use 2x the #uranium of a reload, not 3x.
I& #39;ve looked at initial core designs, and total input uranium is only about 2x of a reload batch. The average enrichment is lower than a reload. Oversimplified, but accurate. Don& #39;t keep repeating this misconception.
I& #39;ve looked at initial core designs, and total input uranium is only about 2x of a reload batch. The average enrichment is lower than a reload. Oversimplified, but accurate. Don& #39;t keep repeating this misconception.
#2: I make this typo sometimes too, but its #U3O8, not U308. Yellowcake is roughly triuranium octoxide (varies a bit depending on processing), which is 3 "U" atoms to 8 "O". I don& #39;t know what isotope the number 308 would be, but it& #39;s probably on the island of stability.
#3: broker prices for UF6 and EUP are usually just formulaic:
$/kgU UF6 = $/lb U3O8 * 2.61286 + $/kgU conv.
$/kgU EUP = # of kgU UF6 * $/kgU + # of SWU * $/SWU, at chosen product (4.95%) and tails assays (0.15%?).
Play around with this EUP calculator: https://www.urenco.com/swu-calculator ">https://www.urenco.com/swu-calcu...
$/kgU UF6 = $/lb U3O8 * 2.61286 + $/kgU conv.
$/kgU EUP = # of kgU UF6 * $/kgU + # of SWU * $/SWU, at chosen product (4.95%) and tails assays (0.15%?).
Play around with this EUP calculator: https://www.urenco.com/swu-calculator ">https://www.urenco.com/swu-calcu...
#4: let& #39;s talk about those WNA uranium projections.
The WNA mid scenario might end up being correct, but what are the biases/unknowns?
@brandon_munro chaired that working group and he speaks with amazing clarity on the fuel cycle, so I have more faith than I normally would.
The WNA mid scenario might end up being correct, but what are the biases/unknowns?
@brandon_munro chaired that working group and he speaks with amazing clarity on the fuel cycle, so I have more faith than I normally would.
#5: speaking of working groups, quit focusing on the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG).
It might bring much-needed assistance to US #uranium producers (and maybe converters & enrichers, too!), but outside of the equity space I don& #39;t think this will have major near-term impacts.
It might bring much-needed assistance to US #uranium producers (and maybe converters & enrichers, too!), but outside of the equity space I don& #39;t think this will have major near-term impacts.
#6: the largest single-month total on the uranium futures exchange is 50,000 pounds. The standard minimum size for a single transaction in physical uranium is 100,000 pounds.
Draw your own conclusions, I guess.
Draw your own conclusions, I guess.
