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Good afternoon everyone! The IHME model just updated again. The changes at first glance don't seem as drastic as they have been in previous updates, but still worth looking over what has changed:
Overall US:
# of total deaths increased a tad from 60,414, to now 61,545 deaths
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 15,852 to 12,697
-Peak hospital usage stayed at 4/11, peak daily death toll went from 4/12 to 4/10(today).
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/16 to 5/21
# of total deaths increased a tad from 60,414, to now 61,545 deaths
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 15,852 to 12,697
-Peak hospital usage stayed at 4/11, peak daily death toll went from 4/12 to 4/10(today).
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/16 to 5/21
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital use and peak daily death toll are the same (4/8 and 4/9 respectively)
-Total deaths now projected to be 13,463 instead of 13,307
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/28
-Peak hospital use and peak daily death toll are the same (4/8 and 4/9 respectively)
-Total deaths now projected to be 13,463 instead of 13,307
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/28
State: FL
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/21. -Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/23
-Total deaths now projected to be 3,999 instead of 4,257
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/24 instead of 5/21.
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/21. -Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/23
-Total deaths now projected to be 3,999 instead of 4,257
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/24 instead of 5/21.
State: NJ
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/12. Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/12.
-Total deaths projected went from 5,277 to 3,915
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/29
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/12. Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/12.
-Total deaths projected went from 5,277 to 3,915
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/29
State: MI
-Peak hospital use is still projected to have been on 4/7
-Peak daily death toll projected is now estimated to have taken place on 4/7 instead of 4/9
-Total deaths projected went to 1,977 from 2,103
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/24 instead of 4/23
-Peak hospital use is still projected to have been on 4/7
-Peak daily death toll projected is now estimated to have taken place on 4/7 instead of 4/9
-Total deaths projected went to 1,977 from 2,103
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/24 instead of 4/23
State: TX
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/22. Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/24.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,042 to 2,350
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/21 instead of 5/14
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/22. Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/24.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,042 to 2,350
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/21 instead of 5/14
State: Va
-Peak hospital use now projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/20. Peak daily death toll projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/22
-Total deaths projected went from 891 to 830.
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/05 instead of 5/1
-Peak hospital use now projected to be on 4/26 instead of 4/20. Peak daily death toll projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/22
-Total deaths projected went from 891 to 830.
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/05 instead of 5/1
State: IL
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/3 instead of 4/11. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/12.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,588 to 777
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/17 instead of 4/27.
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/3 instead of 4/11. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/8 instead of 4/12.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,588 to 777
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/17 instead of 4/27.
State: GA
-Peak hospital on 4/26 instead of 4/20. Peak daily death toll on 4/27 instead of 4/21
-Total deaths projected went from 2,630 to 3,564.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/25 instead of 5/15
-Peak hospital on 4/26 instead of 4/20. Peak daily death toll on 4/27 instead of 4/21
-Total deaths projected went from 2,630 to 3,564.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/25 instead of 5/15
State: LA
-Peak hospital use was on 4/4 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll projected was 4/8 instead of 4/7.
-Total deaths projected went from 946 to 1,125.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 instead of 4/16
-Peak hospital use was on 4/4 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll projected was 4/8 instead of 4/7.
-Total deaths projected went from 946 to 1,125.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 instead of 4/16
State: CA
-Peak hospital and daily death toll stay the same at 4/13 and 4/15 respectively.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,611 to 1,616.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29, same as before.
-Peak hospital and daily death toll stay the same at 4/13 and 4/15 respectively.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,611 to 1,616.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29, same as before.
State: WA
-Peak hospital use estimated to have been on 4/5 instead of 4/6. Peak daily death toll estimated to have occurred on 4/6 (same as last update.)
-Total deaths projected went from 700 to 842.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 instead of 4/10
-Peak hospital use estimated to have been on 4/5 instead of 4/6. Peak daily death toll estimated to have occurred on 4/6 (same as last update.)
-Total deaths projected went from 700 to 842.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/19 instead of 4/10
If I did not include your state in this thread, the IHME model can be accessed here where you can select your state. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
