1/23
Thread: How we use Asia Examples to end Lockdown,

UKGov form on learning from others to stop #Covid19 is poor.

Our strategy to end Lockdown already looks poorly thought through. Politicians seem shy of the needed restrictions.

I hope to explain why they must not be

2/23

A while back I wrote 40 tweets on where we would go next Unless you're super keen, I don't suggest you read them all, but I am going to use the infographic at the end to explain some important concepts. It's also below.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1243962759114633219?s=19

3/23
Apr-(Jun/Sep) is now.
Dates are uncertain because we don't know how how many will did.
Longer = fewer. That's good because I've shown elsewhere this is a zero-sum game.

There is no alternative economic plan. Just one that makes things worse. https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1244141441305268224?s=19

4/23

In the absence of a very unlikely short term vaccine (see2/23) any "economy plan" shoves us right back into #HerdImmunity nonsense.

And that both negates all our efforts at suppression and creates chaos

Another reference thread linked. https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1238405497897857024?s=19

5/23
The next phase Jul (Oct) is a mass testing phase, and that is where we'll be long term (New Normal) until we (v unlikely) eradicate it or (v questionable with Pharma Industry) get a vaccine.

If miracles happen, then we're at Old Normal.

(5 vs 40 @HereBeProof )

6/23
There's another reason that we cannot just let this thing out.

Until and if we eradicate or vaccinate we are LIVING IN A COVID19 WORLD.

It is a different place. The areas that don't control the virus will be shut off, quarantined.

We don't want to be one of those.

7/23

This New Normal has political risk

I'm going to explain it referencing SK and JP, TW, SG & HK which had at worst partial lockdowns, and CN which avoided lockdown outside Wuhan

Why? JH (dark), FT (pink) both show Asia is much better IF death rate matters (see later).

8/23

Remember we were treating Italy as a basket case? They may emerge from this better than UK. They managed control much better than we have.

This is our problem. While there are differences between countries, we're already not doing the things best performers prioritise

9/23
We need to be MUCH better. To exit Lockdown the right way, we need massive improvements.

So I'm going to honour my promise and stop bashing UKGov

And instead, explain what MUST HAPPEN based on Asia best practice because of the other choice = medieval Leper Colony

10/23
WHAT'S THE STRATEGY?
We're going to manage #Coronavirus like we could have done with more notice.

In 4 tweets I'll explain what must be done brilliantly:

1. Mass Testing (think 20m a week not 100K)
2. Personal/Group Isolation
3. Contact tracing
4. Local Quarantining

11/23

1. Mass Testing.
Imagine you have an app on your phone. It requires you to temperate check every morning and certify you have no cough.

If you have either you get out a finger test for #covid19.

If it's negative as a precaution you stay home that day. If positive

12/23
2. Isolation

You'll be scheduled an ambulance pick up. Everyone else in your household will be tested and anyone positive will come with you to a local #coronavirus treatment centre where you'll remain until the virus is completely clear.

13/23
3. Contact Tracing
While you're recovering every contact you've had in the past 2 weeks will be traced, systematically and all tested. The positive results join you in recovery.

If you were abroad everyone on the plane will be tested and local Govs will follow up, but

14/23
even then, mistakes will happen. Some will be accidental, a temperature check or test failure, some will be intentional, a runner refusing to comply, a spitter extortionist, even a terrorist and that will force.

4. Local Quarantine.
The final backstop. A whole area

15/23
isolated until all infection is traced and the risk of spread negated.

Are you one of these?

Aghast?
Concerned about being separated from your kids
Thinking people won't accept it
or
Stubbornly determined "I will never accept that"?

I'll explain why it's preferable.

16/23
Though it's the worst time for the World to be in populist mode.

We need credible politicians who can get out in front of this, explain why it's necessary, build safeguards against civil liberties, and be ready to say things that might be UNPOPULAR.

Not Twitter alone.

17/23
It's also going to need the sort of integration and standardisation across economies that many in this country have spent the last four years trying to get out of.

That could builds an opposition resulting in horrific outcomes.
I said I'd explain: Leper can get worse

18/23
If you're a certain sort of political mindset, you might take a bet on a version of Leper Colony that is "let them die"

Your solution to avoid becoming a colony would be to infect everyone in the hope of clearing it out, that may sound like #HerdImmunity V2. It's worse

19/23
#HerdImmunity, while flawed, at least still planned to separate the old and weak while immunity was built up in a younger stronger population, who would then defeat the virus.

One reasons it was flawed is you're going to miss people.

So now plan to miss no one.

20/23
What if you just let the thing fly, you attempt to infect everyone very quickly, maybe sold as #HerdImmunity V2, but actually you're selling #CullingtheHerd V1. Old, vulnerable, chronic, all are up for grabs with the argument that after that, the virus is clear.

21/23
This is then a real survival of the fittest strategy, Eugenics 101

The evidence for it is weak due to short term reinfection cases, and the speed at which coronaviruses can mutate. That increases as you expose them to more hosts

IF your politicians care for evidence.

22/23
Could a #CullingtheHerd plan happen here?

5 years ago? No.

But weve seen politicians occupy positions of such mendacity recently. This is no longer a stretch.

So I've written it down now, not as Conspiracy since it hasn't yet happened. But as a warning, so it can't.

23/23

So you now see our choices

1. A testing and control regime that will be seen as an assault on liberty
2. Leper Colony - economic suicide
3. #Cullingtheherd

Number 1 IS THE ONLY OPTION conceivable. So we should expect UKGOV to start educating us soon? Right? Sometime?

Post-Script 1
To keep this simple and avoid UKGov bashing, I brushed over a lot. But I have to mention Airport Controls.

Quite unbelievably it's April, and we still have no monitoring of inbound travellers. While that's bad now, it is the sort of idiocy that will kill us later.

A strategy that relies on a final backstop of local area quarantine cannot afford to have people randomly infecting other places.

This is what China learned to stop progress outside of Wuhan.

And it's the self-inflicted wound we face today - random dispersal across the whole UK