1/THREAD: THE V-SHAPED CRUDE DEMAND RECOVERY FANTASY

I& #39;m baffled by the popularity of this GS chart anticipating crude oil demand to recover just as quickly as it collapsed.

Almost everyone seems to be accepting this as rational. I disagree.

#OOTT @Ole_S_Hansen @chigrl

2/ The "Hammer and the Dance" article was so instructive on how this really works.

This graph seems to imply that "The Dance" is optional! It isn& #39;t. Not one bit.

3/ This clearly matches @realDonaldTrump& #39;s fantasies about rushing to re-open the economy without taking time for "the Dance".

"You don& #39;t get to set the timeline! The VIRUS sets the timeline!!!" - A. Fauci

4/ Look at the GS chart. It forecasts that 2/3 of demand destruction will fully retrace by JULY! We won& #39;t even be thru the first song of "the Dance" by July.

I just don& #39;t get what GS is smoking to think this pace of recovery is even remotely possible.

5/ This seems more realistic to me.

Remember, we don& #39;t yet know whether MORE NYC-sized clusters will occur, or when a 2nd wave will arrive or how long it will last.

We DO know that a vaccine for widespread use is a year away.

6/ #OOTT, am I missing something? How can GS possibly expect demand to return almost to normal by July? That makes zero sense to me.

We have to consider that re-starting the economy isn& #39;t just flipping a switch. Hundreds of thousands of businesses already bankrupt!

END THREAD