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1/THREAD: THE V-SHAPED CRUDE DEMAND RECOVERY FANTASY
I'm baffled by the popularity of this GS chart anticipating crude oil demand to recover just as quickly as it collapsed.
Almost everyone seems to be accepting this as rational. I disagree.
#OOTT @Ole_S_Hansen @chigrl
I'm baffled by the popularity of this GS chart anticipating crude oil demand to recover just as quickly as it collapsed.
Almost everyone seems to be accepting this as rational. I disagree.
#OOTT @Ole_S_Hansen @chigrl
2/ The "Hammer and the Dance" article was so instructive on how this really works.
This graph seems to imply that "The Dance" is optional! It isn't. Not one bit.
This graph seems to imply that "The Dance" is optional! It isn't. Not one bit.
3/ This clearly matches @realDonaldTrump's fantasies about rushing to re-open the economy without taking time for "the Dance".
"You don't get to set the timeline! The VIRUS sets the timeline!!!" - A. Fauci
"You don't get to set the timeline! The VIRUS sets the timeline!!!" - A. Fauci
4/ Look at the GS chart. It forecasts that 2/3 of demand destruction will fully retrace by JULY! We won't even be thru the first song of "the Dance" by July.
I just don't get what GS is smoking to think this pace of recovery is even remotely possible.
I just don't get what GS is smoking to think this pace of recovery is even remotely possible.
5/ This seems more realistic to me.
Remember, we don't yet know whether MORE NYC-sized clusters will occur, or when a 2nd wave will arrive or how long it will last.
We DO know that a vaccine for widespread use is a year away.
Remember, we don't yet know whether MORE NYC-sized clusters will occur, or when a 2nd wave will arrive or how long it will last.
We DO know that a vaccine for widespread use is a year away.
6/ #OOTT, am I missing something? How can GS possibly expect demand to return almost to normal by July? That makes zero sense to me.
We have to consider that re-starting the economy isn't just flipping a switch. Hundreds of thousands of businesses already bankrupt!
END THREAD
We have to consider that re-starting the economy isn't just flipping a switch. Hundreds of thousands of businesses already bankrupt!
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