Coronavirus is bad in New York. But just wait for Africa.

Total ventilators by country:

USA: 172,000
Sierra Leone: 13
South Sudan: 4
Liberia: 3
Central African Republic: 3

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/why-covid-might-hit-african-nations-hardest/609760/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=2020-04-10T10%253A15%253A40&utm_source=twitter

( @TheAtlantic)

How do you “flatten the curve” so that everyone in a country gets a chance to use one of three ventilators? You can’t.

A few reasons for #COVID19 despair in Africa—and a few reasons for hope. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/why-covid-might-hit-african-nations-hardest/609760/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=2020-04-10T10%253A15%253A40&utm_source=twitter

Reasons for hope:

Maybe climate will slow transmission.

Africans are young (median age: 19). Predicted case fatality rate for its overall population: 0.3%—which is still millions of people.

Africa has much less inter- and intra-continental travel, which retards spread greatly.

Finally: it is possible—but no one seems to think it’s likely—that there is some level of endemic immunity in Africa due to other diseases. This would be an amazing lucky break. (I believe The Simpsons called it “Three Stooges Syndrome”: .)

But we haven’t yet seen—even in megacities well connected to the rest of the world—swamped hospitals. The numbers are (depending on how you see it) reassuringly or suspiciously low. Every Sub-Saharan country has testing; none but South Africa is posting case numbers above 1000.

Rwanda has 110 #COVID19 cases. The median age of patients is 36. Every one of them is mild. None of them has needed a ventilator. None has even needed an ICU bed. What’s going on?

I have no idea. There is no community spread (i.e., all cases are connected to international travel). Could Rwanda be underreporting cases? I suppose so.

But where are the bodies? And moreover—to what end? Rwanda has been zealous about shutting down travel and social distancing. What would it gain from denying an outbreak for which it is obviously preparing?