Read on Twitter
My sense (from reading tweets, reading WSJ & NYT, watching e.g. CNN/CNBC) is that people are not grasping the severity of the economic situation we’re in (note: I’m NOT talking about the stock market; have no predictions on that and leave those to @KeithMcCullough @mikealfred)
The situation is: we have an economic crisis as deep as we’ve ever seen and faster than we& #39;ve ever seen. Anyone who says they know how long it will take to pull out of it is making that up. We haven’t seen anything this fast or this deep. We all hope the recovery happens fast.
“This is a huge, unprecedented, devastating hit,” said former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to @CNBC this week, expecting GDP to decrease 30% in the second quarter.
What we have is a depression, and an associated debt crisis. The reason we have a debt crisis is because incomes have dropped sharply (people aren’t making as much money as they were before), and now they will be unable to repay their debts (debt cannot be serviced).
These debt crises happen (literally) over and over again throughout history. You can set your watch to it. Its as certain as the sun coming up in the east. The boom/bust cycle that is the history of humans is a history of debt crises.
There are only 4 ways to deal with debt crises. Public policy makers (governments) are the ones that need to handle them (or people will take them into their own hands).
These are the four options:
These are the four options:
1. Spend Less
2. Don’t pay debts back
3. Central Bank prints money and buys debt
4. Transfer money from people who have more than they need to those who don’t have enough
That& #39;s it. Those are your options. Choose your fighter(s).
2. Don’t pay debts back
3. Central Bank prints money and buys debt
4. Transfer money from people who have more than they need to those who don’t have enough
That& #39;s it. Those are your options. Choose your fighter(s).
They all have different short term and long term economic and societal consequences, and are more or less politically palatable and feasible.
The politics of it all are atrocious, just horrible. Polarization tends to go through the roof. Left/Right divide gets exacerbated.
The politics of it all are atrocious, just horrible. Polarization tends to go through the roof. Left/Right divide gets exacerbated.
Also - don’t take my word for it, I’m not the expert. If you want the receipts, the best reading on this is from Ray Dalio, and you can find it here, along with news clippings, data, and meticulous references: https://twitter.com/teddyfuse/status/1248363700983037954?s=20">https://twitter.com/teddyfuse...
Other reading:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/15-history-cyclical-macroprudential-policy-elliott.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-conten... href=" https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/res2/pdf/crbs.pdf
https://www.imf.org/external/... href=" https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/banking-monetary-statistics-1914-1941-38/part-i-6408/contents-334459">https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/ban...
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/15-history-cyclical-macroprudential-policy-elliott.pdf
