I'm increasingly inferring from the way this is playing out that the main mode of transmission really is sharing an air pocket w/ an infected person.

Sharing an air pocket is a (mostly) synchronous mode of transmission, vs. surface-based which can be asynchronous...

If transmission is mostly happening synchronously via a shared breathing space, then this makes sense of the following:

1. Distancing works amazingly well. Simply reducing the # of ppl who share an air pocket synchronously has a massive impact.

2. Cities are hit way harder than rural areas. Rural ppl do a lot of driving to get wherever, & generally spend less time in sharing an air pocket w/ a crowd than urban ppl. Except at church!

3. Megachurches are major seeding sites. Many ppl sharing an air bubble synchronoupsly.

All of this also implies that the number one most important intervention, apart from social distancing, is mask wearing, especially for infected ppl but also for the public.

If this is correct, the Mask Truthers will have a lot to answer for at some point.

For reference, it looks like the rural areas are doing really well. Again, rural people spend a much smaller percentage of their daily time in crowded air pockets. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1248075339445817344

The more I think about this the more sense it makes. The cruise ships, nursing homes, megachurches -- all big spread sites where people share an air bubble synchronously.

It's also incredibly hopeful, b/c we could reopen if everyone would just mask up all the time.

Yep, examples abound. Cover your face holes please. https://twitter.com/richardpointer/status/1248648249352781824