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1/4 Continuing my layman's look at COVID-19 death trends in England this chart of hospital-only shows why I believe England has entered the deceleration phase
If we keep to the lockdown (esp this Easter) I think we will shortly be in the braking phase & able to reduce lockdown.
If we keep to the lockdown (esp this Easter) I think we will shortly be in the braking phase & able to reduce lockdown.
2/4 Before I get carried away with impassionate numbers, I'm just taking a moment to remember that each number of that chart represents the loss of a person, a loved person, a mother, father, grandparent and now even children and younger people
May they all rest in peace,
May they all rest in peace,
3/4 And yes, the numbers on the axis represent only a small subset of deaths - many more have occurred at home and in non-hospital nursing care. Maybe as much as 2 or 3 times as many have actually been killed by this virus.
TBC
TBC
4/4 From the POV of looking for trends it is not important to track every death but to ensure all data comes from a consistent source using consistent methodology in collection
It may be trend of hospital deaths is falling but outside deaths are rising; that is another analysis.
It may be trend of hospital deaths is falling but outside deaths are rising; that is another analysis.
In GIF format... wait for it to start....
The yellow balloon points to 14 days after the action was taken which is when I expect and impact on deaths.
The yellow balloon points to 14 days after the action was taken which is when I expect and impact on deaths.
I missed the last frame off in my haste to take the dog for a walk!!!
Now shows Easter and approximately when the effect of any ignoring of lock down on deaths likely to be noticed.
Now shows Easter and approximately when the effect of any ignoring of lock down on deaths likely to be noticed.
