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1/4 Continuing my layman& #39;s look at COVID-19 death trends in England this chart of hospital-only shows why I believe England has entered the deceleration phase
If we keep to the lockdown (esp this Easter) I think we will shortly be in the braking phase & able to reduce lockdown.
If we keep to the lockdown (esp this Easter) I think we will shortly be in the braking phase & able to reduce lockdown.
2/4 Before I get carried away with impassionate numbers, I& #39;m just taking a moment to remember that each number of that chart represents the loss of a person, a loved person, a mother, father, grandparent and now even children and younger people
May they all rest in peace,
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😢" title="Crying face" aria-label="Emoji: Crying face">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😢" title="Crying face" aria-label="Emoji: Crying face">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😢" title="Crying face" aria-label="Emoji: Crying face">
May they all rest in peace,
3/4 And yes, the numbers on the axis represent only a small subset of deaths - many more have occurred at home and in non-hospital nursing care. Maybe as much as 2 or 3 times as many have actually been killed by this virus.
TBC
TBC
4/4 From the POV of looking for trends it is not important to track every death but to ensure all data comes from a consistent source using consistent methodology in collection
It may be trend of hospital deaths is falling but outside deaths are rising; that is another analysis.
It may be trend of hospital deaths is falling but outside deaths are rising; that is another analysis.
In GIF format... wait for it to start....
The yellow balloon points to 14 days after the action was taken which is when I expect and impact on deaths.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">
The yellow balloon points to 14 days after the action was taken which is when I expect and impact on deaths.
I missed the last frame off in my haste to take the dog for a walk!!!
Now shows Easter and approximately when the effect of any ignoring of lock down on deaths likely to be noticed.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Thumbs up" aria-label="Emoji: Thumbs up">
Now shows Easter and approximately when the effect of any ignoring of lock down on deaths likely to be noticed.
