A critical analysis of F1 2012 - how McLaren robbed Hamilton of an easy championship and why Alonso's "greatest season ever" is a total myth borne out of bulletproof reliability and an uncanny ability to inherit from others' misfortune.

A thread, by me.

The thread will adjust the WDC for *bullshit* (e.g. reliability, misfortune, bad pit stops).

The thread will not adjust for racing incidents, tyre strategy, driver errors or crashes*.
*For the most part

Incidents denoted "N/A" haven't been adjusted, but included for context.

AUS

GRO+MAL contact gifts ALO 2 places (N/A, racing incident)

MSC retires, gifts ALO+VET 1 place each (N/A - Merc too slow overall)

Safety car allows VET to jump HAM in pits (BS)

MAL crash penultimate lap chasing ALO (N/A - wouldn't have got by)

Result:
HAM +3
VET -3

MAL

GRO+MSC contact gifts VET+ALO 2 places (N/A, racing incident)

9.2s + 8.1s stops drop leader HAM behind eventual winner ALO and PER. (N/A - Ham too slow rest of race)

PER runs wide chasing down ALO (N/A)

Cucumber punctures VET out of points from P4 (BS)

Result:
VET +12

CHI

Gearbox penalty drops HAM from P2 to P7 and forces midfield battle instead of easy drive to podium (BS)

MSC retires from P2 after wheel not fitted properly. Easily had the pace to beat both VET and ALO, but not HAM. (BS)

Result:
HAM +3
VET -2
ALO -1

BAH

Farcical McLaren pit stops (9.6s, 12.2s, 5.6s) lose HAM 15s + more time lost battling in traffic. Was ahead of WEB before issues and finishes only 20s behind. (BS)

BUT suffers late race puncture and retires from P6, gifting place to ALO (BS)

Result:
HAM +8
ALO -4

ESP

HAM on pole but excluded from Q for underfuelling. Easily would have won the race. (BS)

VET has to change nose after debris stuck in front wing. Costs a place to KOB. (BS - but reinstating HAM cancels this out)

Result:
HAM +21
ALO -3

MON and CAN

No change

VAL 1/2

(Boring race before SC)

14.1s pit-stop drops HAM behind ALO + RAI at SC restart (BS)

Order @ SC restart
VET-GRO-ALO-HAM-RAI

ALO overtakes GRO at restart (context)

VET retires from the lead (BS)

GRO retires chasing ALO from P2 (BS)

MAL punts Hamilton from P3 (BS)

VAL 2/2

Very difficult to say how the race would've ran without HAM slow stop e.g. ALO wouldn't have been in a position to overtake GRO at the restart.

Based on relative performance from IRL final stint, my estimate is: VET-GRO-ALO-RAI-HAM

Result:
VET +25
ALO -10
HAM +10

GBR

MAL and PER contact gifts HAM 1 place (N/A, racing incident)

No change.

GER

HAM retires after lap 2 puncture, despite the whole field driving through the same piece of debris. (super BS)

BUT finishes P2 to show the McLaren was quick in race-trim.

HAM was ahead of RAI, who finished P3 after VET penalty.

Result
HAM +15
VET -2

HUN

No change

BEL 1/2

Pile-up at T1 (BS)

There was so much setup variation through the grid, and with P4-P8 in Q split by only 2 tenths, it's impossible to predict race order.

The only certainties are:
BUT would have still won
VET probably wouldn't have finished 2nd
ALO+HAM score points

BEL 2/2

VET can keep P2 because it was still a good drive, difficult to penalise him.

ALO and HAM finish as they qualify. I can't think of another way to do it.

Result:
ALO +10
HAM +4

ITA 1/2

ALO fighting for pole before anti-roll bar failure in Q3. Qualifies 10th. (BS)

Ferrari race-pace awful. No speed in second stint. (Go check the lap-times if you disagree)

Quali failure didn't make a difference to the end result. Still would have finished behind PER.

ITA 2/2

BUT retires from P2. (BS) Would've beaten ALO, even without Q problem, such was Ferrari's poor race pace.

VET no drive through if ALO qualified front row, therefore would have been running P5 before retirement. (BS)

HAM-PER-BUT-ALO-VET

Result:
ALO -3
VET +10

SGP

HAM retires from the lead. (BS)

MAL retires whilst running ahead of ALO (N/A - feeling generous, ALO probably would've got him).

Result:
HAM +25
VET -7
ALO -3

JAP 1/2

First corner melee between ALO, RAI, GRO, WEB (BS)

HAM ran *all weekend* with undiagnosed suspension defect (lol McLaren). He qualified 1.1s behind Button. (BS)

Terribly difficult race to call. I don't account for crashes but this is an exception.

JAP 2/2

Only certainty is that VET would have still won the race.

MAS finished P2 so we will be kind and give this to ALO.

HAM impossible to call, no change.

Result:
ALO +18

KOR

Anti-roll bar failure destroys HAM race pace when running P4 (1sec behind ALO) after first round of stops. (BS)

Falls to P10 after dragging astroturf over the line. (Double BS)

BUT taken out by KOB on lap 1 (N/A - wouldn't have troubled front-runners)

Result:
HAM +11

IND

WEB lost KERS and so couldn't defend from ALO (N/A - probably would have got him anyway)

No change

ABU

HAM retires from the lead. (BS)

VET qualifies P3 but excluded from Q for underfuelling. (BS) Not as egregious as Hamilton in Spain, but included for consistency.

V difficult to call, chaotic race.

Likely result: HAM-VET-RAI-ALO

Results:
HAM +25
VET +3
ALO -6

USA

BUT fails to make Q3 because of engine problem. (BS)

Might have beaten ALO but not certain.

WEB retires from P3. Would have beaten ALO. (BS)

Results:
ALO -3

BRA 1/2

Impossible call because of: 1. chaos, 2. unnecessary mid-race SC and 3. would've played out differently if HAM was still in title contention.

VET spun lap 1 (N/A, racing incident)

HUL crashes HAM out from the lead. (BS)

BRA 2/2

Even ignoring HAMvHUL, HAM would have finished ahead of both ALO and VET. Qualified on pole and was quick in the dry+wet.

Feels slightly wrong to say he would have won, but he was leading at the time so bare minimum would've been P3.

Result:
HAM +25
ALO -3
VET -2

SUMMARY

Adjusted WDC:

HAM 342 (+152)
VET 315 (+34)
ALO 270 (-8)