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A critical analysis of F1 2012 - how McLaren robbed Hamilton of an easy championship and why Alonso& #39;s "greatest season ever" is a total myth borne out of bulletproof reliability and an uncanny ability to inherit from others& #39; misfortune.
A thread, by me.
A thread, by me.
The thread will adjust the WDC for *bullshit* (e.g. reliability, misfortune, bad pit stops).
The thread will not adjust for racing incidents, tyre strategy, driver errors or crashes*.
*For the most part
Incidents denoted "N/A" haven& #39;t been adjusted, but included for context.
The thread will not adjust for racing incidents, tyre strategy, driver errors or crashes*.
*For the most part
Incidents denoted "N/A" haven& #39;t been adjusted, but included for context.
AUS 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇺" title="Flag of Australia" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Australia">
GRO+MAL contact gifts ALO 2 places (N/A, racing incident)
MSC retires, gifts ALO+VET 1 place each (N/A - Merc too slow overall)
Safety car allows VET to jump HAM in pits (BS)
MAL crash penultimate lap chasing ALO (N/A - wouldn& #39;t have got by)
Result:
HAM +3
VET -3
GRO+MAL contact gifts ALO 2 places (N/A, racing incident)
MSC retires, gifts ALO+VET 1 place each (N/A - Merc too slow overall)
Safety car allows VET to jump HAM in pits (BS)
MAL crash penultimate lap chasing ALO (N/A - wouldn& #39;t have got by)
Result:
HAM +3
VET -3
MAL https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇲🇾" title="Flag of Malaysia" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Malaysia">
GRO+MSC contact gifts VET+ALO 2 places (N/A, racing incident)
9.2s + 8.1s stops drop leader HAM behind eventual winner ALO and PER. (N/A - Ham too slow rest of race)
PER runs wide chasing down ALO (N/A)
Cucumber punctures VET out of points from P4 (BS)
Result:
VET +12
GRO+MSC contact gifts VET+ALO 2 places (N/A, racing incident)
9.2s + 8.1s stops drop leader HAM behind eventual winner ALO and PER. (N/A - Ham too slow rest of race)
PER runs wide chasing down ALO (N/A)
Cucumber punctures VET out of points from P4 (BS)
Result:
VET +12
CHI https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">
Gearbox penalty drops HAM from P2 to P7 and forces midfield battle instead of easy drive to podium (BS)
MSC retires from P2 after wheel not fitted properly. Easily had the pace to beat both VET and ALO, but not HAM. (BS)
Result:
HAM +3
VET -2
ALO -1
Gearbox penalty drops HAM from P2 to P7 and forces midfield battle instead of easy drive to podium (BS)
MSC retires from P2 after wheel not fitted properly. Easily had the pace to beat both VET and ALO, but not HAM. (BS)
Result:
HAM +3
VET -2
ALO -1
BAH https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇭" title="Flag of Bahrain" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Bahrain">
Farcical McLaren pit stops (9.6s, 12.2s, 5.6s) lose HAM 15s + more time lost battling in traffic. Was ahead of WEB before issues and finishes only 20s behind. (BS)
BUT suffers late race puncture and retires from P6, gifting place to ALO (BS)
Result:
HAM +8
ALO -4
Farcical McLaren pit stops (9.6s, 12.2s, 5.6s) lose HAM 15s + more time lost battling in traffic. Was ahead of WEB before issues and finishes only 20s behind. (BS)
BUT suffers late race puncture and retires from P6, gifting place to ALO (BS)
Result:
HAM +8
ALO -4
ESP https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇸" title="Flag of Spain" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Spain">
HAM on pole but excluded from Q for underfuelling. Easily would have won the race. (BS)
VET has to change nose after debris stuck in front wing. Costs a place to KOB. (BS - but reinstating HAM cancels this out)
Result:
HAM +21
ALO -3
HAM on pole but excluded from Q for underfuelling. Easily would have won the race. (BS)
VET has to change nose after debris stuck in front wing. Costs a place to KOB. (BS - but reinstating HAM cancels this out)
Result:
HAM +21
ALO -3
MON https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇲🇨" title="Flag of Monaco" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Monaco"> and CAN https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇦" title="Flag of Canada" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Canada">
No change
No change
VAL https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇸" title="Flag of Spain" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Spain"> 1/2
(Boring race before SC)
14.1s pit-stop drops HAM behind ALO + RAI at SC restart (BS)
Order @ SC restart
VET-GRO-ALO-HAM-RAI
ALO overtakes GRO at restart (context)
VET retires from the lead (BS)
GRO retires chasing ALO from P2 (BS)
MAL punts Hamilton from P3 (BS)
(Boring race before SC)
14.1s pit-stop drops HAM behind ALO + RAI at SC restart (BS)
Order @ SC restart
VET-GRO-ALO-HAM-RAI
ALO overtakes GRO at restart (context)
VET retires from the lead (BS)
GRO retires chasing ALO from P2 (BS)
MAL punts Hamilton from P3 (BS)
VAL https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇸" title="Flag of Spain" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Spain"> 2/2
Very difficult to say how the race would& #39;ve ran without HAM slow stop e.g. ALO wouldn& #39;t have been in a position to overtake GRO at the restart.
Based on relative performance from IRL final stint, my estimate is: VET-GRO-ALO-RAI-HAM
Result:
VET +25
ALO -10
HAM +10
Very difficult to say how the race would& #39;ve ran without HAM slow stop e.g. ALO wouldn& #39;t have been in a position to overtake GRO at the restart.
Based on relative performance from IRL final stint, my estimate is: VET-GRO-ALO-RAI-HAM
Result:
VET +25
ALO -10
HAM +10
GBR https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flag of United Kingdom" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Kingdom">
MAL and PER contact gifts HAM 1 place (N/A, racing incident)
No change.
MAL and PER contact gifts HAM 1 place (N/A, racing incident)
No change.
GER https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flag of Germany" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Germany">
HAM retires after lap 2 puncture, despite the whole field driving through the same piece of debris. (super BS)
BUT finishes P2 to show the McLaren was quick in race-trim.
HAM was ahead of RAI, who finished P3 after VET penalty.
Result
HAM +15
VET -2
HAM retires after lap 2 puncture, despite the whole field driving through the same piece of debris. (super BS)
BUT finishes P2 to show the McLaren was quick in race-trim.
HAM was ahead of RAI, who finished P3 after VET penalty.
Result
HAM +15
VET -2
HUN https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇭🇺" title="Flag of Hungary" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Hungary">
No change
No change
BEL https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flag of Belgium" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Belgium"> 1/2
Pile-up at T1 (BS)
There was so much setup variation through the grid, and with P4-P8 in Q split by only 2 tenths, it& #39;s impossible to predict race order.
The only certainties are:
BUT would have still won
VET probably wouldn& #39;t have finished 2nd
ALO+HAM score points
Pile-up at T1 (BS)
There was so much setup variation through the grid, and with P4-P8 in Q split by only 2 tenths, it& #39;s impossible to predict race order.
The only certainties are:
BUT would have still won
VET probably wouldn& #39;t have finished 2nd
ALO+HAM score points
BEL https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flag of Belgium" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Belgium"> 2/2
VET can keep P2 because it was still a good drive, difficult to penalise him.
ALO and HAM finish as they qualify. I can& #39;t think of another way to do it.
Result:
ALO +10
HAM +4
VET can keep P2 because it was still a good drive, difficult to penalise him.
ALO and HAM finish as they qualify. I can& #39;t think of another way to do it.
Result:
ALO +10
HAM +4
ITA https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇹" title="Flag of Italy" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Italy"> 1/2
ALO fighting for pole before anti-roll bar failure in Q3. Qualifies 10th. (BS)
Ferrari race-pace awful. No speed in second stint. (Go check the lap-times if you disagree)
Quali failure didn& #39;t make a difference to the end result. Still would have finished behind PER.
ALO fighting for pole before anti-roll bar failure in Q3. Qualifies 10th. (BS)
Ferrari race-pace awful. No speed in second stint. (Go check the lap-times if you disagree)
Quali failure didn& #39;t make a difference to the end result. Still would have finished behind PER.
ITA https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇹" title="Flag of Italy" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Italy"> 2/2
BUT retires from P2. (BS) Would& #39;ve beaten ALO, even without Q problem, such was Ferrari& #39;s poor race pace.
VET no drive through if ALO qualified front row, therefore would have been running P5 before retirement. (BS)
HAM-PER-BUT-ALO-VET
Result:
ALO -3
VET +10
BUT retires from P2. (BS) Would& #39;ve beaten ALO, even without Q problem, such was Ferrari& #39;s poor race pace.
VET no drive through if ALO qualified front row, therefore would have been running P5 before retirement. (BS)
HAM-PER-BUT-ALO-VET
Result:
ALO -3
VET +10
SGP https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇸🇬" title="Flag of Singapore" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Singapore">
HAM retires from the lead. (BS)
MAL retires whilst running ahead of ALO (N/A - feeling generous, ALO probably would& #39;ve got him).
Result:
HAM +25
VET -7
ALO -3
HAM retires from the lead. (BS)
MAL retires whilst running ahead of ALO (N/A - feeling generous, ALO probably would& #39;ve got him).
Result:
HAM +25
VET -7
ALO -3
JAP https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇯🇵" title="Flag of Japan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Japan"> 1/2
First corner melee between ALO, RAI, GRO, WEB (BS)
HAM ran *all weekend* with undiagnosed suspension defect (lol McLaren). He qualified 1.1s behind Button. (BS)
Terribly difficult race to call. I don& #39;t account for crashes but this is an exception.
First corner melee between ALO, RAI, GRO, WEB (BS)
HAM ran *all weekend* with undiagnosed suspension defect (lol McLaren). He qualified 1.1s behind Button. (BS)
Terribly difficult race to call. I don& #39;t account for crashes but this is an exception.
JAP https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇯🇵" title="Flag of Japan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Japan"> 2/2
Only certainty is that VET would have still won the race.
MAS finished P2 so we will be kind and give this to ALO.
HAM impossible to call, no change.
Result:
ALO +18
Only certainty is that VET would have still won the race.
MAS finished P2 so we will be kind and give this to ALO.
HAM impossible to call, no change.
Result:
ALO +18
KOR https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇰🇷" title="Flag of South Korea" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of South Korea">
Anti-roll bar failure destroys HAM race pace when running P4 (1sec behind ALO) after first round of stops. (BS)
Falls to P10 after dragging astroturf over the line. (Double BS)
BUT taken out by KOB on lap 1 (N/A - wouldn& #39;t have troubled front-runners)
Result:
HAM +11
Anti-roll bar failure destroys HAM race pace when running P4 (1sec behind ALO) after first round of stops. (BS)
Falls to P10 after dragging astroturf over the line. (Double BS)
BUT taken out by KOB on lap 1 (N/A - wouldn& #39;t have troubled front-runners)
Result:
HAM +11
IND https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India">
WEB lost KERS and so couldn& #39;t defend from ALO (N/A - probably would have got him anyway)
No change
WEB lost KERS and so couldn& #39;t defend from ALO (N/A - probably would have got him anyway)
No change
ABU https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇪" title="Flag of United Arab Emirates" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Arab Emirates">
HAM retires from the lead. (BS)
VET qualifies P3 but excluded from Q for underfuelling. (BS) Not as egregious as Hamilton in Spain, but included for consistency.
V difficult to call, chaotic race.
Likely result: HAM-VET-RAI-ALO
Results:
HAM +25
VET +3
ALO -6
HAM retires from the lead. (BS)
VET qualifies P3 but excluded from Q for underfuelling. (BS) Not as egregious as Hamilton in Spain, but included for consistency.
V difficult to call, chaotic race.
Likely result: HAM-VET-RAI-ALO
Results:
HAM +25
VET +3
ALO -6
USA https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇲" title="Flag of U.S. Outlying Islands" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of U.S. Outlying Islands">
BUT fails to make Q3 because of engine problem. (BS)
Might have beaten ALO but not certain.
WEB retires from P3. Would have beaten ALO. (BS)
Results:
ALO -3
BUT fails to make Q3 because of engine problem. (BS)
Might have beaten ALO but not certain.
WEB retires from P3. Would have beaten ALO. (BS)
Results:
ALO -3
BRA https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇷" title="Flag of Brazil" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Brazil"> 1/2
Impossible call because of: 1. chaos, 2. unnecessary mid-race SC and 3. would& #39;ve played out differently if HAM was still in title contention.
VET spun lap 1 (N/A, racing incident)
HUL crashes HAM out from the lead. (BS)
Impossible call because of: 1. chaos, 2. unnecessary mid-race SC and 3. would& #39;ve played out differently if HAM was still in title contention.
VET spun lap 1 (N/A, racing incident)
HUL crashes HAM out from the lead. (BS)
BRA https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇷" title="Flag of Brazil" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Brazil"> 2/2
Even ignoring HAMvHUL, HAM would have finished ahead of both ALO and VET. Qualified on pole and was quick in the dry+wet.
Feels slightly wrong to say he would have won, but he was leading at the time sohttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤷♂️" title="Man shrugging" aria-label="Emoji: Man shrugging"> bare minimum would& #39;ve been P3.
Result:
HAM +25
ALO -3
VET -2
Even ignoring HAMvHUL, HAM would have finished ahead of both ALO and VET. Qualified on pole and was quick in the dry+wet.
Feels slightly wrong to say he would have won, but he was leading at the time so
Result:
HAM +25
ALO -3
VET -2
SUMMARY https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏁" title="Chequered flag" aria-label="Emoji: Chequered flag">
Adjusted WDC:
HAM 342 (+152)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👑" title="Crown" aria-label="Emoji: Crown">
VET 315 (+34)
ALO 270 (-8)
Adjusted WDC:
HAM 342 (+152)
VET 315 (+34)
ALO 270 (-8)
