The problem with highly advanced statistical models is not that the formulas are incorrect or the experts are idiots (though many are IYIs); it is that they are reliant upon data that is not reliable.

It is not even reliance upon fraudulent Chinese data, but the fact there is no accurate, large sample size yet of who got the v*r*s and was totally or mostly asymptomatic. Without reasonable certainty that variable is too significant to guess.

Hopefully further antibody tests work and are done on a large scale and we can know how the disease spreads, how deadly it actually is, how to fight it, etc. before/if it returns in the fall with a vengeance.