US Coronavirus Update, Thursday, April 9, 2020
~ Lethal, even as progress continues

Fatalities First

• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Thu, April 9: 16,672

• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,904 (+13%)

--> 2nd deadliest day in the US epidemic

--> 79 cv19 deaths an hour
2/ As the data showed Wed, the absolute number of deaths is stubbornly high. People dying this week were infected 7-14 days ago. Infection numbers were still rising fast 1 & 2 weeks ago.

Last 7 days, deaths / day:

Days 1-4: 1,200 deaths or more

Days 5-7: 1,800 deaths or more
3/ We have reached a new deadly plateau: More than one American a minute is dying every minute of every day, going back to Tuesday, 4/7, from the pandemic.
4/ But even at this new level for daily deaths, the percent increase in deaths is flattening.

Daily increase in deaths, rolling 5-day average:

• Thu, Apr 9: 14.8%
• Thu, Apr 2: 22.8%

With a single-day outlier, the rate of increase in deaths has fallen 6 days in a row.
5/ It& #39;s good to see how dramatic this is.

On Mar 29, US deaths were doubling in 3 days or less.

Predicted deaths, 4/1: 3,900
Actual deaths, 4/1: 5,116

Predicted deaths, 4/9: 24,000
Actual deaths, 4/9: 16,672
6/ On April 1, US deaths were running 31% ahead of the prediction.

By yesterday, eight days later, US deaths were 31% below the prediction.

That is the result of all the measures taken to suffocate the virus in the two weeks before that.

That& #39;s social distancing, working.
7/ As of Thursday, 7,328 Americans who would likely have died in the last 10 days are still alive, because of stay-at-home orders.

Those deaths aren& #39;t just delayed a few weeks. That& #39;s tens of thousands of people who didn& #39;t get sick, and then the 3.6% of the sick who didn& #39;t die.
8/ Now, new cases…

• Total confirmed US cases, Thu, April 9: 465,329

• Increase in cases in last 24 hours: 33,491 (+ 8%)

--> Largest 1-day increase in cases in US pandemic

--> Absolute number of new cases rises 4th day in a row
9/ Cases on Thursday were 438 higher than Wednesday, out of 33,000 cases.

We came close to a day when the rate of increase fell enough to also bring down the absolute number of cases.

• Actual rate of case increase, Wednesday: 7.75%
• Rate needed to reduce cases: 7.65%
10/ As has been true for a week, the most important news on new cases Thursday was that the rate of increase kept falling.

Mon: 11.11%
Sun: 9.24%
Mon: 8.96%
Tue: 8.51%
Wed: 8.28%
Thu: 7.75%
11/ We are at the end of the 3rd week of widespread social distancing.

With the exception of 1 day (3/30), the rate of increase in new cases has fallen every day, 14 days in a row.

5-day trailing average, rate of increase:

Thu, Apr 9: 8.5%
Thu, Apr 2: 14.8%
Thu, Mar 26: 27.2%
12/ One week ago, that 14.8% rate of increase in new cases looked really good.

If we had stayed even at that relatively low rate, here& #39;s the difference:

Cases April 9, if 14.8% increase: 640,000 cases

Actual cases, April 9: 465,000 cases

What& #39;s the point of such a comparison?
13/ Every day of continued social distancing is vital.

Every 1 percentage point we cut off the rate of increase is 5,000 cases a day we don& #39;t pile up.

That& #39;s why we the stay-at-home and business-closing orders extend at least through April 30.
14/ We started late. But as a country, we have done what it was clear we needed to do — to this point.

And it is working vividly. The evidence is in the numbers.

But we are not done.
15/ One last astonishing comparison this morning. One month ago was March 9. There was a lot of skepticism of communities & companies moving against coronavirus that week (NBA, NCAA).

March 9:
--> 704 US cases
--> 26 US deaths

April 9:
--> 465,329 cases
--> 16,672 deaths
16/ We got where we are today from that seemingly tiny, & #39;manageable& #39; numbers of cases a month ago.

If we let the restrictions relax now, we won& #39;t be unleashing 700 sick people on the country.

We& #39;ll be unleashing 500,000. Imagine what that would do, one month from now.
17/ This coronavirus isn& #39;t wily or smart.

It& #39;s just patient & determined.

We *are* wily & smart. And we also — absolutely — need to be patient & determined.

Reminder: We aren& #39;t hurting the economy by protecting the people. We are, ultimately, helping the economy & ourselves. #
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