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1/5 Today, we already saved 8200 lives in Belgium from #covid19 ! And this number is growing every day. Arguments, calculations and plots in this thread. #StayAtHome 
#FlattenTheCurve
#FlattenTheCurve
2/5 How many lives saved thanks to the #lockdown of March 18 (day#20) ? Difficult question because #FlattenTheCurve implies also a delay in the hospitalizations.
3/5 In fact, you need to consider two different scenarios WITHOUT #lockdown at constant Re : (left) with ICU limitation inducing excess mortality rate after day#33 and (right) with no ICU limit.
4/5 By taking the difference between the previous plots, you get the excess mortality that is zero until possible ICU saturation. At day#33, it grows rapidly. Conclusion, we saved 8200 lives in Belgium, as of April 10 !
5/5 DISCLAIMER : This is a rough calculation neglecting age distribution effects, Re evolution, occurence of a possible second wave, etc. BUT it gives an order of magnitude to have in mind when complaining about confinement those days. #StayAtHome
