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Latest news on Vietnam's treatment of Covid-19 patients: 11 patients discharged, active cases down to 111 (out of 249 cumulated): https://bit.ly/2UYRvce . The numbers look very low for a country that shares one of the most active border and flight routes with China. 1/n
My friend @FilipeCampante asked about the precision of those official numbers (right concern), and I could say that I am very confident the numbers are quite accurate, given the high level of transparency in the government's actions throughout the epidemic crisis. 2/n
The number of infections may be underestimated, given the pursued strategy, but likely not by much. The death rate is likely precise. At this point, death toll is still zero. How come? 3/n
First, the government set up a powerful special task force quite early (experience from SARS). When in doubt, they usually err on the safe side, which turns out to be a smart idea in this crisis. E.g., schools remain closed after the 2-week Tet break in late Jan. 4/n
It was perhaps over-restrictive at that time, but when the big crowd of returnees from Europe brought the "second outbreak", preparation was well in place for the big fight. 5/n
Second, the government set up and pursue an aggressive tracking policy, as it was realized early that the often overloaded health sector would not survive a full onslaught of patients if the virus is let loose. 6/n
Borders were tightly controlled, and air passengers from affected areas (China, South Korea, then Europe, then North America) were automatically put in isolated quarantine. Missing cases are thoroughly tracked down to F3 (3 degrees of potential contact). 7/n
Intensive tracking possible in a strong state which for once makes good use of "collective knowledge" :-). All foreigners are immediately reported and have to register and stay tracked. A friend's husband received a home visit 30min after he arrived home from Hong Kong. 8/n
It also requires a firm collective spirit, strengthened by fear and reinforced by a very Vietnamese sense of "contribution to the community" that young generations have not seen. The government's transparency really builds wide-spread confidence and coordination. 9/n
Third, this transparency and strong actions breed much confidence and cooperation among whose lives can be severely affected by restrictions of movements. Secrecy was never a possibility, as relevant information was immediately diffused on social media, sometimes too much. 10/n
The count was stable at 16 for 10 days when a patient returned from the UK and avoided the quarantine, subsequently infecting her entourage. It immediately became big news, and a witch hunt well cooperated by people in potentially affected areas. 11/n
It's bad, but this time the mediatized zealous hunt clearly makes others think twice when deciding to avoid the quarantine. Recently, a case at a major hospital in Hanoi was discovered. Immediate lockdown and testing follow, contagious cases are detected, and... 12/n
now the hospital is ready to get back to full operation again. Imagine all the rearrangement of ongoing patients there! Those strong actions strengthen people's positive belief and will to cooperate, essential for the strategy's success. 13/n
Note that testing is intensive among those suspected of coming into contact with positive cases (up to 3rd degree of separation), but not carried out broadly. Testing is also made cheap and abundant. 14/n
It's still an ongoing fight, with huge damages to the economy, especially the poor. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are under stay-home order since recently, and other provinces do a bit of whatever they want to limit circulation. 15/n
But so far the policies, actions, coordination have been impressive. Certainly a showcase of state capacity, but also social norms: somehow in bad times some otherwise missing good norms emerge. 16/n
The level of transparency and swiftness in action also gives an impression of high accountability, at least in extreme situations. This can easily relate to the puzzle of high economic performance in autocracies. n/n
*The puzzle of high economic performance in *certain* autocracies. I'm clearly not used to tweeting :-).
Also, the cumulative number of cases is just updated to 257, with 144 discharged, 113 under care, 0 death. 75K susceptible cases are isolated/quarantined (50K at home, 25K in designated locations).
