Based on research and original data collected between July 2018 and March 2020, my latest for @MEDirections @RobSchuCentre on the territorial and security fragmentation in #Daraa #Syria

"Festering Grievances and the Return to Arms in Southern Syria"
https://bit.ly/34nt2jL 

2/ More than 450 verified violent incidents including assassinations, kidnappings, IED attacks, and drive-by shootings have led to more than 380 deaths in #Daraa. The paper offers stats on targets, spatial variation in intensity, and causes of re-emergence of violence...

3/ civilians, NGO staff, reconciled rebels, anti-reconciliation
rebels, ex-opposition activists, gov employees, Baath Party officials, security members, military soldiers, Hezbollah militants & Russian Military Police have all been
targets of killings and kidnappings...

4/ an abundance of light weapons, a high number of former rebels present in Daraa, dense clan-based social networks and the accumulated experience of a decade of conflict are but some of the factors that make Daraa governorate a fertile ground for the re-emergence of violence..

5/ The paper explores three main interrelated factors underlying the rise in political violence in post-rebellion
Daraa:
poor governance, the Syrian regime's 'security first' mindset, and the presence of Iran-backed groups in southern Syria ..

6/ poor service provision, increasing poverty, the instrumentalisation of essential services to sanction perceived opponents, and the rejection to allow dismissed civil servants to return to their jobs underpin individuals’ preferences for returning to violent resistance

7/ the paper offers a fresh insight into healthcare sector in #Daraa, shortage of health-workers, and local committees formed to face the spread of #COVIDー19 by patrolling streets and spreading awareness of precautionary measures

8/ Another cause of increasing violence is the Syrian regime’s ‘security first’ mindset in its treatment of detainees and military
defectors.
Detentions did not halt & the release of detainees has become a tactic and bargaining chip to enforce weapons control in #Daraa

9/ incomplete rebel integration process also fuels resentment & triggers local conflicts. The logic behind this manipulation is to create the necessary hostile environment to serve as a pretext for regime intervention to eliminate the remaining enclaves of defiance & resistance

10/ incorporating figures in the security & military forces, the Syrian regime carefully pitted reconciled rebels against unreconciled rebels & unleashed these antagonistic forces against the civil population & opposition activists they had once lived amongst & cooperated with

11/ finally, the presence of Iran & Hezbollah in #Daraa gives rise to cyclical patterns of violence between their militants & collaborators in attempts to establish a long-term presence and, on the other hand, civilian activists & former rebels who undermine their aspirations

12/Read also:
1-How rebel rule ended in Daraa in July 2018: https://bit.ly/2Vj5okC 
2-Rebel military integration in the Russian 5th Corps in Daraa:
http://bit.ly/2oTzoXG 
3-Service delivery & the emergence of civilian & military intermediaries in Daraa:
http://bit.ly/38eCzKA