Calculation of OPEC+ cuts on Feb for OPEC, Jan for non-OPEC, assuming Mexico goes along

So Saudi + Russia egos satisfied by same reference level and % cut; but Saudi's impending March-May ramp-up wins it smaller actual cut. Russia likely struggling to sell its full volumes anyway.

Overall committed cut of ~7.4 Mbpd. Doubt most of the non-OPEC members will voluntarily comply, also question if Iraq & Nigeria will willingly fully comply. So we are still in major oversupply, although full compliance might put off filling storage by ~2 months

Any cuts volunteered by Texas, Alberta, etc., will be less than what is compelled to shut down anyway.

As to idea G20 will commit to buy oil for strategic stocks: other than 77 Mbbl in US SPR, and China SPR which is being filled anyway, G20 has little capacity for more strategic stocks: steep contango means the incentive to store is already there.

So unless world demand turns around very quickly, we're still set for rock-bottom prices by June/July and a major forced shut-in from US, Canada, etc., already underway. But this OPEC+ move takes off political heat for now and puts onus back on G20