Thread: been talking to business types in different sectors (among others) this week, and one thing is becoming clear:

Reopening will be very hard to do. Reopening to repeatedly shut again – “the hammer and the dance” – may well be impossible.

Take pubs. They have been emptied of alcohol, which has often been returned to suppliers. Some have removed fixtures. Many are boarded up. Staff are furloughed.

Reopening is costly. Closing again would be costly. An open/closed cycle could be worse than staying closed.

Other businesses have it worse as they need weeks of certainty on their timeline – some manufacturers, but also theatres, etc.

Cafes and restaurants could in theory open with “social distancing”, but many need more seats filled than that to break even.

That’s before we consider the effects of only some venues being open on demand – will huge numbers crowd the few open shops/cafes/whatever? What will it do to limited public transport services etc?

The biggest problem though could be the psychological effect. If government tries limited reopening then has to lock down again if deaths rise, that WILL get framed as a u-turn, and people will (rightly?) feel lives were lost due to the ‘mistake’.

How, after that, do you u-turn again, having damaged both business and public confidence?

The UK’s premature public debate in reopening doesn’t address any of this.

Lifting the lockdown will be very difficult, and will need to be done in tiny steps. We will need patience.