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1/ Covid ( @UCSF) Chronicles, Day 23
@UCSFhospitals, 20 Covid pts, up one. 4 on vents (Fig). ZSFG still at 30 pts, 12 vents, same. Numbers remain stable.
I’ll be brief today, since I hope you’ll watch today’s superb grand rounds https://bit.ly/2JQW7uv .">https://bit.ly/2JQW7uv&q... It& #39;s 75 min of insights
@UCSFhospitals, 20 Covid pts, up one. 4 on vents (Fig). ZSFG still at 30 pts, 12 vents, same. Numbers remain stable.
I’ll be brief today, since I hope you’ll watch today’s superb grand rounds https://bit.ly/2JQW7uv .">https://bit.ly/2JQW7uv&q... It& #39;s 75 min of insights
2/ Before summarizing few key points from Grand Rounds, here are SF numbers: we continue gradual growth: now 724 total cases in city, up by 48 in past day (Figs). 10 deaths in city, unchanged. While we haven’t hit our peak yet, there’s no sign of a surge.
3/ Two new ways of looking at the impact of the epidemic. First, check out this visualization (by @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h) of daily causes of death in the US: https://bit.ly/34oJFfb ">https://bit.ly/34oJFfb&q... This is literally mind blowing
4/ Second, best way to assess regional burden is by numbers per population. @nytimes tracker https://nyti.ms/39ZbBaG ">https://nyti.ms/39ZbBaG&q... gives vivid demo of how fortunate CA is compared w/ NY (Fig). NY state: 815 cases & 36 deaths per 100K people. CA: 51 cases & 1 death per 100K people. Breathtaking
5/ A few Grand Rounds highlights (though I hope you’ll watch it all; again here: https://bit.ly/2JQW7uv ),">https://bit.ly/2JQW7uv&q... many from @Rutherford_UCSF. George a) highlighted benefit of early lockdown in SF; note @OpenTable reservations fell in SF faster than in NY & LA (Fig & 15:40 on video)
6/ Why did NY get hit so badly? George Rutherford cites new research that multiple Covid patients came from Europe to NY, began spreading mid-February, well before lockdown. Also, one “super spreader.” SF didn& #39;t suffer such bad luck ( https://nyti.ms/34r1p9I ">https://nyti.ms/34r1p9I&q... & 1:07:45 on video)
7/ Rutherford added additional criteria for when we& #39;re ready for next phase (relaxed lockdown) (Fig & 7:50 on video). Key new point from my Apr 7 discussion is #5, “Agreement to continue some community interventions." For eg, he feels we& #39;ll need to still restrict mass gatherings
9/ I asked Russ (46:35 on video): we’ve gone from 2% to 55% video visits in 1 month. Once Covid is over, what % will we land on in steady state? Let me ask you:
10/ @nirajsehgal, our command center lead, offered cool tidbit re: 1 more piece of luck (59m on video). Command center launched 2/2, SuperBowl Sun, date of 49ers’ heartbreaking loss. Had they won, would& #39;ve been big parade, may have led to thousands of cases. (Think Mardi Gras.)
11/ Personal note: Mort Drucker, brilliant Mad Mag cartoonist, died today (not Covid; obit https://nyti.ms/3b05OTk )">https://nyti.ms/3b05OTk&q... When my son Benjy was 12 & aspiring artist, he intervud Mort (pal of my parents) for school project. Fig=excerpts. Lovely man who made world better. RIP
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