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Korea’s CFR just jumped to 2%. Pre-lockdown Wuhan R0 was just estimated by CDC to be 5.7. It’s very likely this burned through the US at 3.5 to 5.7 before the Shelter in Place orders.
The Imperial model assumed 0.9% and 2.4. https://twitter.com/realcandaceo/status/1248352293004759046">https://twitter.com/realcanda...
The Imperial model assumed 0.9% and 2.4. https://twitter.com/realcandaceo/status/1248352293004759046">https://twitter.com/realcanda...
I guess the ’good news’ is that a higher baseline R0 means this might be over soon? https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248138980987551745?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248138980987551745">https://twitter.com/comparati...
Classic SARS was containable b/c it was a first generation jump from an animal to a human. In 2003, we caught a civet virus that could get humans sick. This little f__cker has been bouncing around people and evolving for human hosts for quite some time. https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1247922712233652225?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati...
The opposite. If it came from wild animal sold at a wet market, that happened awhile ago. It probably wouldn’t be this efficient as a pathogen without evolution doing it& #39;s thing and the virus adapting for humans after a few generations of H2H transmission.
https://twitter.com/opinion_left/status/1248452160347443201?s=21">https://twitter.com/opinion_l... https://twitter.com/opinion_left/status/1248452160347443201">https://twitter.com/opinion_l...
https://twitter.com/opinion_left/status/1248452160347443201?s=21">https://twitter.com/opinion_l... https://twitter.com/opinion_left/status/1248452160347443201">https://twitter.com/opinion_l...
Maybe the R0 was always this high but the CFR was even higher. There& #39;s a lot of combinations where it could be hitting remote villages for years without anyone noticing b/c it didn& #39;t spread (being too lethal or getting the host very sick too fast, like MERS, stops transmission)
This little jerk is 10-20x & #39;stickier& #39; on ACE2 cells than Classic SARS. That& #39;s not stochastic bad luck of someone eating the wrong pangolin in November... that& #39;s genetic selection for an evolutionary fitness landscape.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1247032529535692800?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1247032529535692800">https://twitter.com/comparati...
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1247032529535692800?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1247032529535692800">https://twitter.com/comparati...
Here& #39;s the study (published in @nature) that first made this argument. It’s *such* a good fit for humans, they argue it might have been around “for years, maybe decades.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9">https://www.nature.com/articles/...
The Nature article was trying to debunk the bIoWeApOnZ conspiracy theories.
TL;DR natural selection is far better at designing a nasty virus than ‘intelligent design’ at some lab.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
https://www.nature.com/articles/... href=" https://twitter.com/y_mariebelle/status/1248459486525681669?s=21">https://twitter.com/y_mariebe... https://twitter.com/y_mariebelle/status/1248459486525681669">https://twitter.com/y_mariebe...
TL;DR natural selection is far better at designing a nasty virus than ‘intelligent design’ at some lab.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Rapid urbanization in China = most villages have populations that are 70-80% elderly. The model in my head is villages getting hit every year with something that looked like MERS. Quick spread, quick onset, small total # of dead, written off as pneumonia.
https://twitter.com/ostarrysky/status/1248461976218427394?s=21">https://twitter.com/ostarrysk... https://twitter.com/ostarrysky/status/1248461976218427394">https://twitter.com/ostarrysk...
https://twitter.com/ostarrysky/status/1248461976218427394?s=21">https://twitter.com/ostarrysk... https://twitter.com/ostarrysky/status/1248461976218427394">https://twitter.com/ostarrysk...
i.e., imagine 5% of >60’s die in Pingzi, Guizhou from ‘the flu.’ What would that be? 5-10 people? Where’s the closest modern hospital? Villagers would isolate the infected automatically if symptoms came fast and quick. Repeat a dozen times over years.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248463421458112513?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248463421458112513">https://twitter.com/comparati...
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248463421458112513?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1248463421458112513">https://twitter.com/comparati...
