Read on Twitter
Ever listen to a 3 Card Monty dealer& #39;s & #39;patter& #39;?
No facts, all lies & constant cheating
The same as the & #39;patter& #39; from "the models were wrong!" crowd.
Most of these folks are #DemocratVoter level stupid
They don& #39;t know the math or methodology
They HYPE "destroyed our nation" https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1248257557266927616">https://twitter.com/johncardi...
No facts, all lies & constant cheating
The same as the & #39;patter& #39; from "the models were wrong!" crowd.
Most of these folks are #DemocratVoter level stupid
They don& #39;t know the math or methodology
They HYPE "destroyed our nation" https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1248257557266927616">https://twitter.com/johncardi...
Nothing& #39;s been destroyed. They don& #39;t deal in truth. They deal in "impressions"
Here& #39;s any easy test of Cardillo& #39;s math powers:
How do you calculate to the nearest thousandth of a foot the intersection point of two spirals?
He& #39;s going to get coached, "It& #39;s a trick question!"
Here& #39;s any easy test of Cardillo& #39;s math powers:
How do you calculate to the nearest thousandth of a foot the intersection point of two spirals?
He& #39;s going to get coached, "It& #39;s a trick question!"
40 years ago, my engineering professor told his students it was "impossible".
I said, "No, it& #39;s not." & promptly was told to bring PROOF to the next lecture or I& #39;d fail the course.
2 days later, I put calcs/proof for 48 spiral intersections in his hands & had student sets too.
I said, "No, it& #39;s not." & promptly was told to bring PROOF to the next lecture or I& #39;d fail the course.
2 days later, I put calcs/proof for 48 spiral intersections in his hands & had student sets too.
If you& #39;re smart or intuitive, you may already have figured out HOW I did it.
(No credit for saying: using a computer - that& #39;s an obvious piece of the technology, name the methodology)
If Cardillo& #39;s as smart as he thinks he is, he should know.
We& #39;ll see
@drawandstrike @COsweda
(No credit for saying: using a computer - that& #39;s an obvious piece of the technology, name the methodology)
If Cardillo& #39;s as smart as he thinks he is, he should know.
We& #39;ll see
@drawandstrike @COsweda
Let& #39;s talk models
Degree in eng & 5 years later & #39;shanghaied& #39; into making a $ 1 million computer system pay for itself, I ended up spending the rest of my career in IT & IT management.
Want a forecasting model to estimate hours to complete a project?
I built 1 based on workflow
Degree in eng & 5 years later & #39;shanghaied& #39; into making a $ 1 million computer system pay for itself, I ended up spending the rest of my career in IT & IT management.
Want a forecasting model to estimate hours to complete a project?
I built 1 based on workflow
Workflow is the steps followed in a Best Practice to produce high quality results EVERY time.
Build a computer model to a specific workflow & enforce it& #39;s rigorous use? You get high quality, on budget product.
Winners have workflows. Losers don& #39;t.
Now let& #39;s talk REALITY.
Build a computer model to a specific workflow & enforce it& #39;s rigorous use? You get high quality, on budget product.
Winners have workflows. Losers don& #39;t.
Now let& #39;s talk REALITY.
An engineering project is not reality writ large. It& #39;s controllable.
To wit: You enforce workflow & fire those who don& #39;t stick to it.
Pandemics are the OPPOSITE of an engineering project.
They are CHAOS due to the huge number of variables & the BIGGEST?
Humans
To wit: You enforce workflow & fire those who don& #39;t stick to it.
Pandemics are the OPPOSITE of an engineering project.
They are CHAOS due to the huge number of variables & the BIGGEST?
Humans
Even in large numbers, human behavior is not highly predictable via standard modeling techniques.
You demand PROOF?
@realDonaldTrump
3.5 years ago, ALL standard models predicted he would NOT be President.
Fortunately, his people were NOT using standard models.
You demand PROOF?
@realDonaldTrump
3.5 years ago, ALL standard models predicted he would NOT be President.
Fortunately, his people were NOT using standard models.
When you set out to build a model of a pandemic, you make assumptions on many of the variables:
1. If you tell businesses to close, how many will?
2. If you tell people to Stay at Home, how many will?
3. If you tell people to Wash Their Hands, how many will?
Those are just 3
1. If you tell businesses to close, how many will?
2. If you tell people to Stay at Home, how many will?
3. If you tell people to Wash Their Hands, how many will?
Those are just 3
Those 3 are Very Important, as are about 2,000 other variables.
Let& #39;s play "You& #39;re the Modeler"!
Item 1: If you guess 90% & only 70% do, lots of ppl DIE
Item 2: If you guess 90% & only 60% do, lots of ppl DIE
Item 3: If you guess 90% & only 50% do, lots of ppl DIE
Having fun?
Let& #39;s play "You& #39;re the Modeler"!
Item 1: If you guess 90% & only 70% do, lots of ppl DIE
Item 2: If you guess 90% & only 60% do, lots of ppl DIE
Item 3: If you guess 90% & only 50% do, lots of ppl DIE
Having fun?
No? Neither is a modeler who sets compliance variables high that end up being wildly optimistic.
Can you imagine someone whose model is going to be published TO THE WORLD setting those values HIGH?
Me neither.
Besides, there is an excellent reason to set the values LOW.
Can you imagine someone whose model is going to be published TO THE WORLD setting those values HIGH?
Me neither.
Besides, there is an excellent reason to set the values LOW.
If you set your values low, your model is going to predict a scary number of deaths
Fear is one of the BEST motivational tools in the history of the world
If you have an IQ above body temperature, you KNOW that& #39;s true. (I will NOT guarantee anyone in MSM has that high of an IQ)
Fear is one of the BEST motivational tools in the history of the world
If you have an IQ above body temperature, you KNOW that& #39;s true. (I will NOT guarantee anyone in MSM has that high of an IQ)
The same caveat applies to ALL Liberals.
Predict a & #39;scary but not unrealistic number& #39; & the ppl will WANT to comply.
Excellent!
Therefore, a lot LESS ppl WILL die.
Most Excellent!
For those muttering about manipulation, you& #39;re a hypocrite if you& #39;re tweeting for impressions.
Predict a & #39;scary but not unrealistic number& #39; & the ppl will WANT to comply.
Excellent!
Therefore, a lot LESS ppl WILL die.
Most Excellent!
For those muttering about manipulation, you& #39;re a hypocrite if you& #39;re tweeting for impressions.
One last word on modeling, the methodology any decent modeler is using to improve the accuracy of their model is the exact same methodology I used to calculate the "impossible" intersection point of two spirals to the nearest thousandth of a foot.
If you know one, you know both.
If you know one, you know both.
Since I& #39;m using different starting points in this thread, here& #39;s the link back to the beginning & the two intersecting spirals problem. https://twitter.com/PolAgnostic/status/1248435795582689281?s=20">https://twitter.com/PolAgnost...