As promised, let’s talk about #AaronJones for a while. I didn’t want him last year and I don’t want him this year. Did 19 TDs make me wrong or was that an outlier? Let’s look at the numbers...

#Packers
#FantasyFootball https://twitter.com/drewfbgauctions/status/1248109547543199744

In 2019 #AaronJones played all of his team’s games for just the third time since his freshman year at UTEP. That’s 3 full seasons over his last 7 seasons of football. There is a reason two consecutive coaching staffs have not been comfortable giving him a 300 touch workload.

1/

For the record: I love his ability, and I love watching him play. But I do think there is something to the notion that he’ll struggle under a heavy workload.

He had 285 touches last year (236 rushing attempts and 49 receptions) and played all 16 games.

#NarrativeStreet
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But while he was staying healthy a couple other pieces of the offense did not.

#DavanteAdams missed 4 games in Weeks 5-8.

#JamaalWilliams missed weeks 4, 5, and 17.

Here’s what happened when they missed time for the #Packers.

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Week 5 was the only game both guys missed. In that game Jones had a whopping 19/107/4 on the ground with 8/7/75 through the air for 49.2 PPR points.

In Weeks 4&17 when Williams missed but Adams played, he combined for 28/121/1 and 13/8/80/0.

4/

The averages w Williams out were 14/60.5/.5 and 6.5/4/40/0.

It’s obviously a very small sample size but those numbers weren’t wildly off of his normal numbers. Instead, the major factor seemed to be *Adams* being off the field, not Williams.

#NarrativeStreet

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It’s worth noting at this point that Williams did siphon off 46 targets, 39 receptions, 107 carries, 460 yards, and 6 TDs. This isn’t an even split, but Williams DOES play a lot, and he does hurt Jones’ upside.

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So what did #AaronJones do when #DavanteAdams was out? In Weeks 5-8, four games, here are his eye popping numbers:

55 attempts/13.75 per game
271 ru yds/67.75
27 tgts/6.75
22 recs/5.5
7 TDs/1.75

That’s 117.1 PPR points at a clip of 29.27 per game!

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For perspective #AaronJones scored 314.8 PPR points on the year, and his 4 week stretch with Adams out represented 37% of his total for the entire season!

#Packers
#NarrativeStreet

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So how did he do when they played? In the 10 games when all 3 guys played, here were #AaronJones’ numbers:

143 attempts, 692 yds, 29 targets, 19 receptions, 115 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs (all rushing).

#NarrativeStreet

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Those averages are:

14.3 attempts per game
69.2 RuYds
2.9 targets
1.9 receptions
11.5 RecYds
1.1 TDs

163.6 PPR points
16.36 ppg

Jones finished RB2 in PPR, but this per game average was only good for RB10.

#NarrativeStreet

Consider also:

- He scored 3 rushing TDs v Carolina who allowed 1.7 per game (2nd place allowed 1.1!) and made Tevin Coleman relevant
- He had 48 of his 163 points (29%) in games against Carolina and Washington, the worst in TDs and 2nd worst in yards allowed respectively

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So in our limited sample it looks like Jones feasted on a couple lowly defenses and then was simply mediocre if Williams and Adams played.

Williams certainly hurts Jones in some ways, but his presence isn’t as deadly as Adams.

#NarrativeStreet

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In the 12 games #Adams played, Jones topped 37 receiving yards just TWICE! He topped 2 receptions just 3 times in 12 games!

When it comes to RB options in 2020 I certainly recognize how good he can be. But 1.9 catches and 11.5 rec yards per game is not...

13/

...what I want to pay for what he’s going to command of my auction budget on draft day. Let someone else chase the 19 TDs. #AaronJones isn’t gonna be on many, or any, of my auction teams this year.

#FantasyFootball
#NarrativeStreet
#Packers
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