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As much heat as some people have put on @IHME_UW for their #COVID19 model right now the curve and actual numbers aren& #39;t spread far apart. If you look at their model below - the red line and dashes vs. the extreme case, it& #39;s within a reasonable and realistic range. https://twitter.com/tkinder/status/1248374010703831040">https://twitter.com/tkinder/s...
Some people seem to believe something like the #COVID19 model created by @IHME_UW should just be able to look at an extremely complex situation and land on a number.
I think people who create models open them selves up to undue criticism by attempting to hone in on a number.
I think people who create models open them selves up to undue criticism by attempting to hone in on a number.
Unfortunately too, enough people don& #39;t have a good grasp of numbers and some tilt far away from believing in any institution or forecast so even a good model or forecast isn& #39;t considered credible.
But at this moment - if the daily death numbers in the US don& #39;t...
But at this moment - if the daily death numbers in the US don& #39;t...
...shoot up to over 3,200, then there is a decent probability that the curve follows what is being modeled by @IHME_UW for #COVID19 in the United States.
We& #39;re currently at an odd point - over 1,600 and below the 2,212 number they currently estimate to be the peak...
We& #39;re currently at an odd point - over 1,600 and below the 2,212 number they currently estimate to be the peak...
...for daily deaths in the United States. This is a very tricky point because staying above 1,600 keeps open the possibility of moving all the way up near 3,200.
So, if the situation with social distancing, treatments, hospital care remains more or less equal...
So, if the situation with social distancing, treatments, hospital care remains more or less equal...
...then that could lay the ground for the numbers to reverse lower.
There should be some stronger resistance near 2,150. That level is very close to what @IHME_UW is currently estimating the peak death rate in the US to be for this first wave of #COVID19.
There should be some stronger resistance near 2,150. That level is very close to what @IHME_UW is currently estimating the peak death rate in the US to be for this first wave of #COVID19.
If #COVID19 deaths can remain below 2,150 and begin to work back towards 1,600 and then below that it would likely be a positive sign.
As long as we& #39;re at and around this 1,900 area level where we have spent a couple of days at it is touch and go.
As long as we& #39;re at and around this 1,900 area level where we have spent a couple of days at it is touch and go.
But, staying around 1,900 could be an indication that around 1,900 or so there is, if nothing else, a temporary ceiling that is offering some resistance to higher numbers.
I mentioned this yesterday but the gold price in 2011 reversed at just over $1,900.
I mentioned this yesterday but the gold price in 2011 reversed at just over $1,900.
I in no way am confused or am making any equivalency between prices and lives except to say that numbers behave the same way and there is an underlying order to them.
Whatever level we are at regarding deaths is a tragedy and studying the quantity and levels...
Whatever level we are at regarding deaths is a tragedy and studying the quantity and levels...
...scarcely does justice to the great loss being inflicted on not only those we are lost to #COVID19 but families, friends and loved ones as well. This is an awful situation.
I hope to provide some context within this awful #COVID19 pandemic to provide information on where we might be in terms of things either improving or not.
There is so much debate and disagreement about nearly every aspect of this tragedy.
There is so much debate and disagreement about nearly every aspect of this tragedy.
But numbers are not subject - in my opinion at least - to wildly differing opinions. There are ranges. Today& #39;s numbers and levels are the stuff that determines and guides what happens tomorrow.
It is an impossibility to put together an accurate forecast without...
It is an impossibility to put together an accurate forecast without...
...having historical data, without having an adequate amount of data measured from the correct intervals, and an understanding of how numbers work and what levels are significant or not.
Otherwise, we& #39;re simply wandering around in the dark cursing the lack of light.
Otherwise, we& #39;re simply wandering around in the dark cursing the lack of light.
It is difficult to change and bend what we don& #39;t take the time to measure. It is difficult to know where we are going without a sense of where we have been.
I believe these numbers give us a sense of both - where we have been and where we may be headed.
I believe these numbers give us a sense of both - where we have been and where we may be headed.
The numbers do not provide certainty. If you want a single number to land on or a simple answer to an unimaginably complex situation, you& #39;re not going to get that from me or these numbers.
However, I hope to provide a better sense of where things might be headed and...
However, I hope to provide a better sense of where things might be headed and...
...temper expectations - both from unreasonably frightening scenarios to ones that don& #39;t match where the numbers are.
The numbers are milestones. Time and interval provide ways to measure and give us indications of future direction.
The numbers are milestones. Time and interval provide ways to measure and give us indications of future direction.
That and models like the #COVID19 model produced by @IHME_UW are all we have.
We live in an uncertain world. I have grown to be more comfortable as I have aged to just say that I don& #39;t know.
I& #39;m not going to provide you with some narrative where I pretend...
We live in an uncertain world. I have grown to be more comfortable as I have aged to just say that I don& #39;t know.
I& #39;m not going to provide you with some narrative where I pretend...
...to know exactly how we got here as if I have some omniscient level of knowledge because I don& #39;t.
I& #39;m not going to pretend to know if every death classification is right or that I& #39;d even know where to start examining for errors. I don& #39;t know.
I& #39;m not going to pretend to know if every death classification is right or that I& #39;d even know where to start examining for errors. I don& #39;t know.
I& #39;m not going to pretend to be smarter than groups like @IHME_UW that created a #COVID19 model that appears to have influenced government policy and response. I& #39;m not that kind of smart.
I& #39;m not going to pretend to know if we have clamped down on the economy too tightly...
I& #39;m not going to pretend to know if we have clamped down on the economy too tightly...
...or not because I can& #39;t know with certainty. However, you can study history and look at how Philadelphia, PA and St. Louis, MO dealt with the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu Pandemic and draw your own conclusions on what actions yielded better results.
Simply put, I& #39;m not the guy who is going to pretend to know everything.
One thing I am extremely good with is numbers. If I know anything, it& #39;s numbers.
That is what I know.
I know that remaining above 1,600 #COVID19 deaths per day leaves the US vulnerable to the...
One thing I am extremely good with is numbers. If I know anything, it& #39;s numbers.
That is what I know.
I know that remaining above 1,600 #COVID19 deaths per day leaves the US vulnerable to the...
...daily deaths to climb to near 3,200.
I know that around 2,150 would be a potential point where the death rate may hit some resistance.
The @IHME_UW #COVID19 model is pointing to a peak at 2,212 the last I looked, so their number isn& #39;t far from the 2,150 level.
I know that around 2,150 would be a potential point where the death rate may hit some resistance.
The @IHME_UW #COVID19 model is pointing to a peak at 2,212 the last I looked, so their number isn& #39;t far from the 2,150 level.
I know that @IHME_UW has mentioned that this is the 1st Wave of this Pandemic.
I know I& #39;m good with patterns.
This #COVID19 pattern as represented by @IHME_UW looks very much like the 1st Wave of the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu Pandemic.
This #COVID19 pattern as represented by @IHME_UW looks very much like the 1st Wave of the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu Pandemic.
I don& #39;t know with certainty, but am concerned that we are facing a much more serious 2nd Wave of this Pandemic in the Fall.
If we let our guard down or simply have a situation where people could get reinfected, etc. then we could face a very rough Fall and into Winter.
If we let our guard down or simply have a situation where people could get reinfected, etc. then we could face a very rough Fall and into Winter.
I hope we aren& #39;t learning the incorrect lesson from #COVID19 should the @IHME_UW model prove correct and the death numbers begin to move lower.
I hope we don& #39;t think it isn& #39;t useful to model.
I hope we don& #39;t think that social distancing and sacrificing to preserve...
I hope we don& #39;t think it isn& #39;t useful to model.
I hope we don& #39;t think that social distancing and sacrificing to preserve...
...lives was a waste.
I hope we don& #39;t forget the need to be prepared with testing, masks, equipment if faced with a much stronger 2nd Wave of #COVID19 this fall.
I hope we remember that human life is valuable and that despite our differences we have much in common.
I hope we don& #39;t forget the need to be prepared with testing, masks, equipment if faced with a much stronger 2nd Wave of #COVID19 this fall.
I hope we remember that human life is valuable and that despite our differences we have much in common.
I hope we have the sense to fight the common enemy and not each other and to make sure that the battle has been won and #COVID19 is defeated.
