1) Premier François Legault has told Quebecers he can see the light at the end of the #COVID tunnel. On Thursday, he sketched out some details of what lifting the province’s lockdown might entail. In this thread, I will try to outline the challenges ahead for Montreal.

2) First, though, here’s an update on the epidemiological situation in Montreal, Canada’s #COVID hot spot. The city reported its 2nd biggest single-day increase in new cases on Thursday. Montreal’s top public health doctor says the pandemic is now peaking in the city.

3) In that context, it’s not unrealistic to consider eventually lifting the #COVID lockdown. Non-essential businesses across Quebec are closed until at least May 4. Legault said that when Quebec reopens, it will be done in a sectorial, phased approach.

4) The premier suggested Thursday that the first businesses to reopen will have employees who can maintain the social-distancing requirement of two metres. That rules out restaurants, he said. For some guidance on possible scenarios, let us look at the experience of two cities.

5) On Wednesday, Wuhan — the epicentre of China’s outbreak — formally lifted its lockdown. Wuhan declared its first cluster of cases in late December. To date, the city’s #COVID death rate is 230 per million inhabitants.

6) Far worse, New York City’s #COVID death rate soared to 514 per million inhabitants as of Thursday morning. Montreal’s death rate has inched up to 46 per million population. Let us return to Wuhan’s reopening.

7) After an 11-week lockdown, Wuhan’s train service resumed on Wednesday. The decision to lift the lockdown came when authorities did not observe any new infections for several days. Will there need to be no new cases for several days in Montreal for the city to start reopening?

8) Despite Wuhan’s reopening, there were few taxis on the streets in the last couple of days. The Huanan Seafood Market, the suspected source of the pandemic, is closed. Many apartment blocks have yet to reopen. There are still many other #COVID restrictions.

9) Wuhan might not be the best example, so let us review the experience of the country that has arguably managed the #pandemic the best, South Korea. It pushed ahead with widespread testing — something Quebec has never done — after discovering its first #COVID case on Jan. 20.

10) South Korea, with a population of more than 51 million, has so far registered 204 #COVID deaths, a dozen less than Quebec. South Korea never truly imposed a lockdown except for closing schools. Let’s turn to the country’s capital, Seoul.

11) On Wednesday, Seoul’s mayor, Park Won-soon, announced he will shut 422 venues across the city — mostly bars and nightclubs — until April 19. The mayor reached this decision after only two bar employees contracted the #coronavirus recently.

12) The experiences in Wuhan and Seoul underscore just how difficult it will be ultimately to lift the lockdown in Montreal. Dr. Mylène Drouin, the city’s public health officer, has warned that Montreal will likely face more outbreaks after the big #COVID wave subsides.

13) Montreal’s summer festivals have been cancelled or postponed. Restaurants might not reopen for a while. What kind of psychological burden will a partial reopening have on Montreal’s famously sociable residents? Is there any other solution to the #COVID menace?

14) One possible solution — and I stress possible — is the use of phone apps. Israel launched an app called The Shield that tracks a user’s whereabouts and then compares them to the known movements of someone who has #COVID19. Alberta is planning a similar app.

15) Premier Legault has expressed unease at the prospect of deploying #COVID-tracking phone technology in Quebec. Another option is for the government to make available the vital-signs monitoring app I’ve written about in the @mtlgazette.

16) The app allows users to follow their heart and respiratory rates as well as the oxygen saturation in the blood. Those with abnormal levels hinting at a respiratory illness would stay home for self-monitoring or go to hospital. I do know Quebec is considering this.

17) I’m not endorsing any one solution but simply laying out the #COVID challenges to come. Yes, there is light at the end of the tunnel. But we need to know what do to safely when we all get out of that tunnel. End of thread. Please practice #PhysicalDistancing.