Read on Twitter
I'm going to try to answer @benshapiro's questions... Trying to keep it as simple as possible.
The 3 Big Questions Nobody Is Answering https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/08/the_3_big_questions_nobody_is_answering_142884.html via @RealClearNews
The 3 Big Questions Nobody Is Answering https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/08/the_3_big_questions_nobody_is_answering_142884.html via @RealClearNews
1. Death rate.
The death rate is very likely less than 1%. Early on experts thought it was higher, mostly because mild cases were not being counted.
The death rate is very likely less than 1%. Early on experts thought it was higher, mostly because mild cases were not being counted.
The actual treasure is hard to clearly quantify, but it is probably around 0.5-0.7%. https://www.livescience.com/death-rate-lower-than-estimates.html
The common flu strain is usually less than 0.1%. Some strains vary, but that is the common number used.
So this is about 5-10 more deadly. The problem is... It is far more infectious.
So this is about 5-10 more deadly. The problem is... It is far more infectious.
2. What about recurrence?
A second wave is highly likely. It's going to depend on 2 factors: How many people are now infected, and if that infection provides immunity.
We don't really know the answer to either.
A second wave is highly likely. It's going to depend on 2 factors: How many people are now infected, and if that infection provides immunity.
We don't really know the answer to either.
The population prevalence really has various from country to country. Everyone is really guessing on this number, and will be until we have widespread antibody testing.
As for immunity, most likely if you've had the disease, you will have at least short term immunity. That is probably in a time range of at least a couple years... Could be lifelong. We just don't know.
That means a second spike is HIGHLY likely. This is why widespread testing, followed by tracking all possible contacts, is going to be necessary until we have a vaccine.
3. What can we do?
Well... Everything is possible. A vaccine in 12-24 months is highly likely. Therapeutics will likely be earlier.
Well... Everything is possible. A vaccine in 12-24 months is highly likely. Therapeutics will likely be earlier.
We are very close to be doing to 1 million or so tests a week we will need for screening once we open the economy up. This will be accomplished.
The tracking mechanism is much more difficult. We really don't have the public health infrastructure. We have to build it from the ground up.
Furthermore, states will have to lead on this... And they are overburdened as it is.
It will take a Herculean effort.
Furthermore, states will have to lead on this... And they are overburdened as it is.
It will take a Herculean effort.
