I had a terrifying thought earlier today. Does *anything* that happens in Welsh politics actually matter - i.e. does it have political electoral consequences for the parties? Or is the success/failure of parties in Wales ultimately just decided by what goes on at Westminster? 1/

So I compared YouGov polling for the Senedd and Westminster in Wales will polling for the parties across the UK to see if there was any kind of unique pattern or whether they basically just moved in unison. Here's Labour. 2/

As you can see although support is basically pegged at different levels, they follow a v similar pattern. If Labour is doing well at Westminster, they do well at Senedd, if they do badly at Westminster, they do badly at Senedd. There are a few kinks but it's quite consistent. 3/

The same thing is true with the Conservatives. Support is clearly pegged at a lower level in Wales than across the UK but support goes up and down in a very synchronised manner. 4/

Plaid Cymru don't stand outside Wales so there's nothing to compare with them. But I think this graph provides a rather depressing picture. Basically, PC's good polling numbers broadly coincide with Labour doing badly at Westminster, and vice versa. 5/

In conclusion, and rather depressingly, what actually goes on in Welsh politics doesn't actually matter much. Senedd politics is just a little paper boat blown around by the political winds of Westminster. 6/

The reason for this IMO is that ultimately the people of Wales don't really know what goes on in Wales. We have no real Welsh media and therefore no Welsh public sphere, and so people decide how to vote in Wales-specific elections based on Westminster's political news. 7/

Scotland meanwhile has a relatively strong media and therefore politics there is noticeably 'untethered' from Westminster. The parties follow their own polling patterns not entirely but almost independent from the wider UK. 8/

We have half of the puzzle in place in Wales - the national and democratic institutions. The other piece of the puzzle is that public sphere that everyone in Wales is part of - and in 20 years its's gotten weaker if anything. A lot of work to do! 9/